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The future of the markets has become more political than economic, and we’re now facing two potential scenarios:
1. The Fed holds steady:
They won’t cut rates and won’t stop quantitative tightening (QT). They'll try to stick to their original plan, which included starting QE toward the end of the year. But this refusal to cut now will cause pressure to build—likely pushed hard by the political side—until something breaks. And when it does, the blame will fall squarely on the Fed for not acting sooner. This is the most likely outcome in my view.
2. The Fed pivots soon:
QT could end this month, with rate cuts starting in June. Markets would likely rally through the end of the year—not the full bull market people hope for, but still a solid pump. Then in 2026, we’d enter a full-blown recession and a brutal bear market. Once again, blame will fall on the Fed—and of course, on “Sleepy Joe” for the economic fallout.
The dream scenario?
The Fed stops QT, starts cutting, a massive bull market kicks off, and everything booms until the end of 2026. America becomes “great again,” no recession, and everyone prospers.
But let’s be honest—that’s just a dream.
With the level of manipulation and political interference over the past two years, it’s only a matter of time before something breaks badly. Too many bad actors are involved now, unfortunately.