Cryptocurrency Trends: Will the once-mythical wealth creation story be repeated in the future?
Looking back at the glorious years of the cryptocurrency market, hotspots continuously emerged in the secondary market, with tokens frequently seeing increases of several times or even over ten times. Such a wealth feast has captivated countless investors. However, the current market seems relatively quiet. Have those crazy wealth creation times disappeared for good? The answer is not so absolute; it just requires specific conditions to be met—and all of this is closely related to Bitcoin's increase.
Looking back at history, we can clearly see that several rounds of altcoin explosions in the secondary market are closely linked to Bitcoin's movements:
Phase One: From December 2022 to March 2023, Bitcoin increased by about 90%. At that time, it was the early stage of a bull market, with hot tokens like OP, SSV, and LDO taking the lead, achieving about fivefold increases and igniting market enthusiasm.
Phase Two: From September 2023 to January 2024, Bitcoin achieved a significant increase of 192%. This phase can be described as a carnival moment for altcoins. Many altcoins like SEI, WLD, OM, and IMX performed astonishingly, with increases exceeding tenfold, attracting countless investors.
Phase Three: From September 2024 to January 2025, Bitcoin's increase reached 110%, with tokens like SUI and NEIRO increasing over fivefold, and most altcoins also seeing growth of 2-3 times.
It can be seen that the size of Bitcoin's increase directly determines the explosive potential of altcoin hotspots. Currently, Bitcoin's price is around $94,000, and the subsequent upward space has led to many speculations. Analyzing from an objective standpoint, the possibility of Bitcoin doubling in the short term is extremely slim. The key factors that previously drove Bitcoin's significant increase, such as the liquidity brought by massive interest rate cuts, are now difficult to replicate. Even if there are interest rate cuts in the future, their intensity will be far less than that of 2020-2021. The lack of market liquidity is like placing a 'shackle' on the upward space of Bitcoin.
The historical peak of Bitcoin is around $110,000. Assuming it breaks through the resistance level of $97,000 and rises to $110,000, the increase would only be 17%. In this case, how much potential can altcoins have? In my opinion, to recreate a major market trend in the secondary market, Bitcoin either needs to see a significant increase to open up new valuation space, or it must experience a deep correction to release risks and recharge. Otherwise, under the current market conditions, there are unlikely to be any significant investment opportunities in the secondary market. Therefore, 'watch more and act less,' maintaining a cautious observation, may be the most prudent investment strategy at present.
