Current price situation (as of May 6, 2025):
• Current price: around $94,000 - $96,855, with slight fluctuations depending on sources (such as CoinMarketCap and Binance).
• Overall trend: Bitcoin is moving within an upward channel on the long time frames, with bullish momentum supported by strong institutional flows and supportive policies.
• Key levels:
• Support: $86,643 - $88,000 (Fibonacci retracement levels and strong demand areas).
• Resistance: $95,000 - $100,000, with strong psychological resistance at $100,000.
Technical analysis:
1. Trends and technical patterns:
• Bitcoin is moving within an upward channel on the hourly and daily time frames, indicating continued bullish momentum as long as the price respects the upward trend line (around $86,000 - $88,000).
• A bullish pennant pattern has appeared on the four-hour time frame, which is a strong bullish pattern supporting the likelihood of continuing upward movement if the $95,000 level is broken.
• However, there are signs of a double top pattern forming on the four-hour time frame, which may indicate a potential correction if the $92,000 level is broken, with correction targets at $88,000 - $89,500.
2. Technical indicators:
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): indicates positive momentum without entering the overbought territory, allowing room for further upside.
• Moving averages (MA): the price is trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, supporting the upward trend. The short-term moving average crossing above the long-term enhances optimism.
• MACD indicator: shows positive divergence, supporting the continuation of bullish momentum.
3. Fibonacci levels:
• The 61.8% retracement level (around $81,982) is considered a strong demand zone that has been recently tested, reinforcing support in case of a pullback.
• The resistance level at $100,000 coincides with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the recent upward move.
4. Market sentiment:
• Strong institutional flows, especially from ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy, support the upward trend.
• Political announcements, such as the support of elected President Donald Trump for a strategic reserve for digital currencies, enhance optimism.
• The decline in Bitcoin balances on exchanges to a five-year low indicates accumulation by long-term investors, reducing selling pressure.
Price forecasts for May 2025:
1. Bullish scenario:
• If Bitcoin breaks the resistance level at $95,000 and settles above it, it is likely to target $100,000, a strong psychological and technical level.
• Some analysts' forecasts (like Coinpedia) suggest the possibility of reaching $110,000 before the end of May, supported by technical and institutional momentum.
• In the long term, forecasts range between $120,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, with optimistic projections reaching $250,000 in a favorable regulatory environment.
2. Bearish scenario:
• If Bitcoin fails to break $95,000 and breaks below $92,000, it may see a correction to the $88,000 - $89,500 areas, with strong support at $86,643.
• In the event of a deeper drop (unlikely but possible), it may test the $81,982 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
3. Expected scenario:
• Bitcoin is likely to continue trading within the range of $92,000 - $100,000 during the first half of May, with repeated tests of the $95,000 level.
• In the second half of the month, if institutional momentum and political support continue, a bullish breakout towards $100,000 - $110,000 may occur.
• However, monthly and weekly closes should be monitored, as a close below $92,000 may indicate a short-term correction.
Summary:
Bitcoin is in a strong technical and market position during May 2025, with bullish momentum supported by institutional flows and supportive policies. The forecasts suggest a possibility of breaking $100,000 during the month, with potential targets at $110,000 if the momentum continues. However, support levels at $92,000 and $86,643 should be monitored to avoid sudden corrections. It is advisable to follow weekly and monthly closes to confirm the trend, while conducting independent research before making any investment decisions.
Everything mentioned in this article is not financial or investment advice and is merely personal analysis.
