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The Truth of Liquidity Exhaustion: No Water, No Rise, Even Gold is Dusty

• "Water Level Determinism":

Bull Market = Capital floods in, even junk coins can rise tenfold; Bear Market = Water level recedes, hundredfold coins fall back to ankle level, even leading ETH struggles to survive.

• Valuation Collapse:

In the last cycle, hundred billion market cap tokens were everywhere, with first-level valuations starting at 1 billion dollars; this cycle, 95% altcoins have been halved again and again, new coin valuations slashed to ankle level (tens of millions), the "liquidity pricing power" has collapsed.

• "Crazy Water Level Line" Indicator:

Trading groups flood with "buy coins with eyes closed", indicating that off-exchange funds have broken rationality, and the water level is about to drown the neck.

• "Fed Softening" is the Main Flood Season Switch:

Interest rate cuts, reinitiating quantitative easing, institutional entry, are the true starting point of the capital flood, before which is merely "fishing in dry water".

• The Iron Law of "Taking":

• Only engage with clear logic coins like BTC, ETH, stablecoins, refuse "FOMO blind boxes";

• Accumulate liquid assets in bear markets, exchange for elastic assets in bull markets, do not reverse cycle and gamble all in.

• The Wisdom of "Giving Up":

• Shield against get-rich-quick myths, insider news, KOL recommendations, 99% of "opportunities" are scams;

• Only earn money within your understanding (e.g., earn DeFi money if you understand DeFi), anything beyond is an illusion!

• "Time × Cognition" Endurance Race:

• Position management > selecting coins, risk control > returns;

• Profits within cognitive boundaries are real money, portions beyond are bubbles.

• Do not chase new coins in dry periods (valuations have been slashed to ankle level), refuse to be the "first-level dumper";

• In bull markets, moderately allocate elastic assets (50-100 billion market cap altcoins), but position ≤ 30%.

• Dry Period:

"Do not reach out when water levels do not rise, KOL's words are poison, guard your position as if guarding your life."

• Bull Market Period:

"Funds enter and then chase high, allocate 30% to elastic assets, quickly withdraw leverage bubbles, secure gains and avoid greed."

• Ultimate Iron Law:

"In the crypto circle, liquidity is the only 'true god'—without water to support, all coins swim naked."

1. Water level determines coin price, restraint determines life and death;

2. Bull markets rely on capital floods, bear markets rely on cognitive moats;

3. Adhere to the three principles of "hunting within the capability circle" + "information detox" + "secure gains", only then can one survive to the next round.