The trend of Bitcoin in May is full of uncertainty. We need to keep a close eye on these news and be prepared in advance to seize opportunities; we must not suffer losses in this wave of market movements!
From a policy perspective, the recent economic data from the United States is quite noteworthy. The non-farm payroll data is very strong, with 177,000 new jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. However, inflation pressure has not shown significant relief, with the core PCE inflation rate still at 2.8%.
In this situation, the Federal Reserve is definitely thinking about observing for a while to see which direction the economy goes before deciding on the next steps. Looking at the U.S. stock market, it has recently been on an upward trend, with the S&P 500 index rising for nine consecutive days, and the dollar index has also strengthened. What does this indicate?
It indicates that the market has considerable confidence in the resilience of the economy, which in turn reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
This time, everyone needs to pay close attention to Powell's speech. The market is eagerly waiting to see how he will comment on the inflation outlook and Trump's tariff policy.
If Powell sends out “hawkish” signals, such as emphasizing inflation risks, the market is likely to experience a “quake,” with significant volatility; but if he indicates some concern about economic slowdown, the market might immediately raise its expectations for an interest rate cut in June. Tariff policies are likely to affect inflation; if inflation is impacted, the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts. Conversely, if economic data shows signs of recession, the Federal Reserve might have no choice but to cut rates to stimulate the economy!
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