#FOMCMeeting
Fed Rate-Cut Odds (CME FedWatch)
May 2025: 2.7% chance of –25 bps cut. 👍😎
June 2025: ~15% chance. 📈🚀
July 2025: ~40% chance. 🗓️🔥
1. Crypto Allocation
Reduce leverage: Cut margin/derivative exposure by 40% to dampen volatility risk. 📉⚠️
Core hedge: Hold 1–2% in BTC/ETH as “blue-chip” digital collateral. 💎🛡️
Yield bucket: Allocate 1–2% to quality DeFi/centralized stablecoin yields (~8–12% APY). 💰💵
2. Equity & Risk Assets
Quality tilt: Shift 5% from small-caps into large-caps (healthcare, staples). ⚖️🔄
Sector barbell: Overweight tech (15%) + defensive (10%), underweight cyclicals (5%). 🏋️♀️📊
3. Fixed Income & Cash
Short-duration bonds: 15% in 1–3 yr Treasuries or IG corporates. 🔒📄
Cash buffer: 10–15% in high-yield savings or MMFs for late-cycle optionality. 💰💲
4. Risk Management
Monthly re-balance: Align to target weights vs. 5% drift tolerance. 🔄🎯
Options hedge: Buy low-cost SPX puts (~2–3% notional) to cap drawdowns. 📉📈
> Bottom Line: With cuts deferred, favor liquidity, quality, and defensive hedges—keep crypto as a small, income-oriented sleeve rather than a pure beta lever. 💡✅