#FOMCMeeting The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is taking place today, May 6-7, 2025. Here is what you need to know ¹:
- *Interest Rate Decision*: The Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and their impact on the economy.
- *Economic Data*: There is a divide between "hard" and "soft" economic data. Hard data shows the economy remains strong, while soft data indicates consumer and business sentiment is deteriorating.
- *Interest Rate Cuts*: The market anticipates an interest rate cut in July, with a 56% probability of a cut already factored in. Some strategists believe rate cuts may come later, possibly in October, depending on economic data.
- *Concerns about Inflation*: The Fed is balancing the risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. Tariffs could lead to higher prices, while a slowing economy may require lower interest rates.
*Possible Outcomes:*
- *No interest rate cuts*: The Fed may keep interest rates steady for an extended period, monitoring the impact of tariffs on the economy.
- *Upcoming interest rate cuts*: If the labor market deteriorates rapidly, the Fed may cut interest rates, even if inflation remains above the 2% target.
*Market Expectations:*
- *Interest rate cuts in July*: The market is pricing in three interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.
- *Uncertainty*: The range of potential outcomes remains wide, and significant policy surprises may occur.