As of May 6, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is approximately $94,386, slightly down from its historical high of $109,464, and is in a phase of high-level fluctuations. The price of Bitcoin doubled in 2024, breaking $100,000 in early 2025, with market sentiment high, but recently due to profit-taking, the price has been fluctuating in the range of $91,000 to $97,000, with a 24-hour trading volume of $37.152 billion, indicating a high level of market activity.
Technical analysis shows that $80,000 is a key support level; if it breaks, it could drop to $75,000. $97,000 is a short-term resistance level, and a breakout may challenge $100,000. The RSI indicator suggests short-term bearish pressure, and MACD may show divergence, indicating a need to be cautious of a trend reversal. On-chain data MVRV Z-Score indicates that the upper valuation limit for Bitcoin is around $190,000, which has not yet reached the cycle peak, suggesting there is still room for an increase.
On the fundamental side, funds continue to flow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with 683,000 BTC absorbed in 2024, institutions like MicroStrategy increasing their holdings, and countries like El Salvador expanding their reserves, indicating a rapid adoption by institutions and sovereigns. The halving effect in 2024 will manifest in the latter half of 2025, and historical patterns suggest a potential explosive growth in 12-18 months. The macro environment is favorable, with a reversal in global money supply and expectations of U.S. crypto-friendly policies boosting confidence, but if policy implementation falls short of expectations, it may trigger a pullback.
Regarding the price forecast for 2025, optimists like Bitfinex expect it to reach $145,000-$200,000, and Galaxy Digital is bullish on $185,000; the neutral forecast is $80,000-$150,000; in a pessimistic scenario, it could retrace to $60,000. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to mainly fluctuate, while the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged
