Afternoon Thought Analysis

After experiencing the previous fluctuations, BTC is currently in a relatively critical position. During the May Day holiday, the price rose to around 98,000 and then pulled back, hitting the key support level of 93,600, and then rebounded. The current price is hovering around $94,000. At the 4-hour level, it is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near 93,600. If it can stand firm, it is expected to launch an impact on the $95,600-96,200 range, and further look to $98,000.

Although the daily RSI has fallen slightly from the high, it is still above the warning line, indicating that the previous rise was too fast and there is a technical need for correction. The MACD histogram continues to be negative but gradually becomes shorter, indicating that the strength of the bulls is increasing. However, the KDJ indicator is in the oversold zone and there is no golden cross or dead cross, and the market trend is not very obvious.

News level

The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision on May 7, which is a key factor affecting the subsequent trend of BTC. The market currently expects that the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.25% - 4.50% in May is as high as 97.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.8%. If the interest rate remains unchanged, it may keep the market stable or put some pressure on the BTC price; if the interest rate is unexpectedly cut, it may push up the BTC price. #加密市场回调