1. Market Overview: The long-short game has entered a heated stage
As of May 6, Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuates in the range of $94,200-$95,500, with a 24-hour volatility rising to 3.2%. The market shows three main characteristics:
1. Institutional Capital Absorption Effect: BlackRock's IBIT fund size exceeds $33 billion, with a net inflow of $3.1 billion in a single week, creating a pattern of 'institutional floor support + retail following'
2. Technical Key Breakthrough: Daily MACD forms an air refueling pattern; if it breaks through $95,500, it will open up a $100,000 channel, but the 4-hour RSI divergence needs to be cautious of a short-term correction
3. Derivatives Market Differentiation: CME Bitcoin futures premium reaches 6.5%, while perpetual contract funding rates fall to 0.01%, indicating coexistence of institutional accumulation and retail observation
2. Core Asset In-Depth Analysis
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Epic transition window opens
- On-chain Data Anomaly: Addresses holding 1000+ BTC have increased their holdings by 23,000 in the past week, a new high since the 2024 halving, with average cost concentrated at $92,800
- Technical Key Levels:
- Long-Short Boundary: $93,000 (200-day moving average + Fibonacci 38.2%)
- Breakthrough Target Levels: First target $98,700 (historical liquidity gap), second target $105,000 (Gann angle line extension point)
- Stop-loss Trigger Point: If it falls below $90,000, it will trigger a $680 million long liquidation
Institutional Strategy Insights: MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 15,000 BTC this week at an average price of $92,700, suggesting members use a 'staggered entry method' to invest in three batches at $93,500/$94,800/$95,300
2. Ethereum (ETH): The impending Layer2 revolution
- Fundamental Catalysts: Vitalik's five-year protocol simplification plan launched, expected to reduce Gas fees by over 40% and increase TPS to 100,000 level. Technical Shape Analysis: Daily triangle convergence end, breaking through $1,850 will trigger weekly-level increase, targeting $2,200 (ATR channel upper boundary)
Ecosystem Explosion Point: Base network TVL exceeds $5 billion, suggesting members focus on arbitrage opportunities in emerging Layer2 tokens such as Metis and Mantle
3. Regulatory Trends and Institutional Strategies
1. **Policy Dividend Window**: The Trump administration promotes (stablecoin bill) legislation, 401(k) plans may allow 3% allocation to crypto assets, expected to bring an additional $240 billion in capital
2. ETF Fund Flows: Bitcoin ETF holdings account for 4.7% of Bitcoin circulation; if BlackRock continues to increase by $1 billion weekly, a $100,000 breakthrough may come as early as mid-May
3. Cross-Market Linkage: Correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500 drops to 29%, strengthening the 'digital gold' attribute, suggesting members allocate 15-20% position to hedge geopolitical risks
4. Member Exclusive Strategies: Latest signals from AI Quantitative Models
▶️ Short-term Opportunities:
- move/usdt target -196
▶️ Mid-term Layout:
- RWA Track: Focus on CFG (Centrifuge) on-chain assets breaking through $120 million in collateral value
- AI+DeFi Combination: FET (AI agent) + RNDR (computing power leasing) + AAVE (lending protocol) triangular arbitrage strategy
▶️ Risk Warning:
- Before the May 8th Federal Reserve meeting, it is recommended to reduce leverage to below 3 times
- USDT OTC premium rate drops to -0.3%, caution against short-term liquidity contraction
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