Bitcoin's strong rally over the past few weeks has pushed the price back near the $95,000 mark, but recent chart signals indicate the potential for volatility ahead. The current structure, as seen on both the daily and hourly timeframes, suggests that BTC may be preparing for a healthy pullback or even a stronger correction if critical support levels fail.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bearish Momentum Near Multi-Month Resistance
On the daily Heikin Ashi chart, Bitcoin has printed its first red candle after several consecutive green sessions—indicating a potential short-term peak forming around the $95,000 level. This area, previously marked by rejection in March, is proving to be a persistent barrier. The MA bands, including the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs, show significant confluence resistance between the $91,500 and $94,000 levels. The price is currently trading just slightly above the 200-day SMA ($90,309), which has historically acted as a pivotal area for continuation or break.
What makes this setup delicate is the flat structure of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs. These moving averages have yet to steepen significantly, suggesting that while momentum has returned, the medium-term trend has not fully shifted into bullish territory. The daily Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) remains high, indicating that smart money has not yet exited strongly—but any signs of further weakness could trigger substantial profit-taking.
Hourly Chart: Early Signs of Collapse?
The hourly chart gives us a closer look at short-term weakness. After failing to break through the $96,000 level, Bitcoin has dropped sharply and is now hovering around $94,400. The price has slid below the 20 and 50 SMA, with the 100 and 200 SMA now acting as resistance above around the $95,000–$96,000 range. This crossover from support to resistance could be a warning sign that momentum is weakening.
The price structure of Bitcoin is also forming a potential descending triangle pattern, often preceding price drops. Furthermore, recent recovery candles lack conviction, indicating that buying pressure may be waning. The ADL on the hourly chart is starting to flatten after steadily increasing during the previous rally. This could indicate a pause in accumulation and possibly the beginning of a light distribution phase.
Key Support Level: Where Could Bitcoin Drop Next?
The first key support to watch is the 200-day SMA on the daily chart at $90,309. If Bitcoin closes a daily candle below this level, it could create additional selling pressure and shake out weak hands. Below $90,000, the $86,000–$88,000 range becomes the next critical zone, aligning with the 50-day SMA. If this zone fails, the possibility of a sharper decline to $78,000 increases.
The worst-case scenario would be a return to the $70,000 level, which acts as a macro support zone during previous consolidation phases. While this decline would represent a ~25% correction from recent highs, such pullbacks are not unusual in Bitcoin's historical bull market cycles.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Healthy Correction or Beginning of a Slide?
Bitcoin's price remains in an overall bullish structure, but short-term signals are flashing yellow. Consolidation below $95,000, weakening hourly momentum, and resistance from key moving averages suggest that the path of least resistance may be lower in the coming days. A break below $90,000 could accelerate bearish momentum, potentially dragging the price down to the low $80,000s or even into the $70,000 range in a high-volatility scenario.
However, unless we see significant volume accompanying this move, such a pullback could represent a much-needed reset before the next rally. Long-term trend supporters may view any decline to the $78,000–$70,000 range as a strategic buying opportunity. BTC's price action in the coming days will be crucial in determining whether this is merely a pause or the beginning of a broader correction.