Current trend analysis:
You guys pulled up the market very aggressively during the May Day holiday! The short-term high point was pulled to around 98,000, and then it was blocked and fell back. The current price has retreated to around 93,800. From a small level, there is no sign of stopping the decline. Pay attention to the stop!
The entire market has been shrouded in a downward trend in the past two days. Those who have not reduced their positions are worried about continued corrections, and those who want to cover their positions are afraid of covering them halfway. Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level for a whole week. I hope you can stay calm and buy cheaper chips before a new trend emerges.
The position near 94500 has become a resistance, suppressing the repair. The support below is around 91800, showing a fluctuating downward trend. There is no sign of turning upward. Before the strong rebound, there is a high probability that there will be another wave of accelerated decline. The so-called "no destruction, no construction" is also the same reason.
The 1800 barrier of Ethereum is facing a test again. Like Bitcoin, 1810 has become a resistance, suppressing its rebound. The support below is around 1740, showing a volatile callback trend. The support of 1740 is particularly critical, which determines whether the overall cottage can continue to rise. At present, it is still in a callback trend.
At 2 a.m. on Thursday this week, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate. Trump has repeatedly called for a rate cut, but more people are calling for it to remain unchanged. This data will directly affect the short-term market trend and may also be a turning point. Everyone should be mentally prepared.
The market predicts that the Fed will not cut interest rates in May and June with a probability of 97.2% and 65.1% respectively. So far, the market still believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates in May, which should be a high probability. After the release of GDP and non-agricultural data, the expectation of no interest rate cut in June is getting higher and higher. The market has begun to give up the possibility of the Fed adjusting interest rates without a recession.
It is expected that interest rates will not be lowered. Even if interest rates are lowered this year, given that the economy and employment have been in line with expectations, it is estimated that interest rates will not be reduced in a dovish manner.
As for the suspension of balance sheet reduction, I guess Bao will not say it so soon. His other speeches are either neutral or biased. There are no remarks that are very dovish. First of all, it is difficult to rise, so it will be a correction and shock.
The daily K-line trend has been stable at around 93,100 since the 25th. Looking at the URPD data chart, there is a huge amount of chips accumulated at 931,00. It can still fluctuate above 93,100 for the time being. Let's see the market sentiment after the opening of the US stock market, the market's expectations for the interest rate meeting, and the actual speech of Mr. Bao.
It is still a period of low liquidity and prices are falling
Unless the event stimulates negative sentiment, the downward trend will be clearer, but it has not happened yet. So let's wait and see.
Some news and data this week
Monday: Non-manufacturing PMI forecast may be between 50.5-51.5, slightly above 50 but weak growth (above 50 is bullish)
Tuesday: If the central bank governor hints at the forum that "inflation is still high and high interest rates need to be maintained", it may strengthen hawkish expectations and be bearish
If the topic of "economic weakness and need for easing" is mentioned, the market may bet on interest rate cuts in advance, which will benefit the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Powell may also express his views at the forum.
The cryptocurrency circle has been very lively recently, with everyone talking about the ETF alt season. Many people want to ask: Can XRP take advantage of this wave of momentum to surge?
A few days ago, the news that "the US SEC approved the XRP spot ETF" suddenly spread online, and the price of XRP immediately rose by 5%. However, it fell back after a while, and everyone realized that it was a misunderstanding. In fact, the US ProShares company will issue three XRP-related ETFs on April 30, but these ETFs do not buy XRP directly, but make money by betting on the rise and fall of XRP futures prices - there are three types: 2x long, 1x short, and 2x short.
There are already 4 XRP ETFs in the United States, all of which are futures products, and there are no spot products. However, on April 25, Brazil took the lead in launching the XRP spot ETF. In addition, the Chicago Stock Exchange will also launch XRP futures on May 19, which may be a preparation for the launch of spot ETFs in the future.
The question is, when will the US SEC approve the XRP spot ETF? Large companies such as Grayscale have already submitted applications, but the SEC has not yet relented. Now that the ETF alt season is approaching, there are more than 70 ETF applications in the market, and everyone is looking forward to the new SEC chairman to relax the approval process after taking office.
Next, XRP, Sol, and LTC are seen as the focus of attention. Doge, Bonk, and PENGU are also following the ETF hype, but to be honest, those who follow the hype are likely to be here to make money. In comparison, the market value of XRP is 134.5 billion, and the market value of SOL is 76.9 billion. From the perspective of scale and ecological development, SOL may be more likely to increase in price in the future.
