The holiday is over, is your wallet still full?

In the last update before the holiday, we provided a bullish outlook for Bitcoin around 93,500 and Ether around 1,745, clearly stating that a break below would occur in the short term. As expected, with the arrival of the holiday, after a short-term downturn, Bitcoin provided a perfect buying point at 93,000 and Ether at 1,735, eventually reaching a peak of Bitcoin at 97,800 and Ether at 1,870, successfully completing the anticipated recovery, thus we are focusing on the future market.

Regarding the future market, attention must be paid to the U.S. interest rate discussion in the early hours of the 8th. From the recent market indications, Li Mu believes that we cannot continue to be optimistic, especially concerning the severe impact of the high tariffs imposed on our country during this period on the livelihoods of the people. Moreover, the related inflation data for April shows that inflation rates are not decreasing but rather increasing. This indicates that the U.S. economy is stronger than expected. Thus, Li Mu believes that even if the previously existing expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to change, betting solely on the upward movement of interest rate cuts may not be wise.

Shifting focus to the market, the medium to long-term structure has clearly shown signs of adjustment. Even disregarding the macroeconomic impacts, short-term support around 92,000 for Bitcoin will inevitably be tested, which could happen in the next two days. If 92,000 is broken and cannot be reclaimed, then the short-term trend will be fully bearish down to below 89,000. However, Li Mu believes that relative to Bitcoin, more attention should be paid to the remaining holdings of altcoins, especially for leveraged players. At this time, if Bitcoin drops by 3%, altcoins could drop by 30%.