The May 6–7 #FOMC meeting could be the most important event of the month—because it may decide whether interest rates stay high or start coming down again. With inflation still hot, growth slowing, and new political tariffs shaking markets, all eyes are on what the Fed will do next. Here's the explanation:
The FOMC, which sets U.S. interest rates, is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%. Why? Because inflation is still above the Fed’s target (around 2.6%) and the job market, while softening slightly, remains strong. The Fed doesn’t want to cut rates too early and risk reigniting inflation—but it also doesn’t want to wait too long and cause a recession.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will release the official statement on May 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. He’s likely to strike a careful tone—acknowledging economic risks but avoiding clear commitments. Markets will watch every word for signs of possible rate cuts in June or later.
This meeting won’t include updated economic projections, but it will give us key clues. Powell’s words, the Fed’s policy statement, and how they address inflation, jobs, and tariffs will shape market direction for weeks to come.