2025-5-5 Bitcoin Analysis:

It's been a while since I analyzed the market, so let me start with some hindsight analysis,

According to Fibonacci 0.618 on the weekly chart, the resistance level for this upward wave is at the price of 962, which is the main point for the bears. Besides 0.618, it is also a densely traded area of the left M-top pattern, with prices roughly around 966-978.

This price level is also the average cost zone for some long positions that were trapped after Trump took office. After being resisted at this level, we need to pay attention to whether there is any momentum for a decline. From the candlestick chart, the last weekly candlestick at Fibonacci 0.618 had a long upper shadow, indicating that the bulls attempted to push higher but were still suppressed. This week starts the question of whether the bullish trend has ended or if the pullback is just to facilitate a better upward movement.

From a technical perspective on the weekly chart, a W-bottom breakout has formed (I remember mentioning this W pattern once before). On the left, there is also an M-top pattern, so we need to pay attention to the price level of 89,000, which corresponds to the neckline of the left M-top pattern and also to the neckline of the W-bottom breakout below.

Another point to consider from the candlestick itself is that this upward wave has created a FVG (Fair Value Gap) vacuum zone, and the central area of the FVG is near 89,000. Furthermore, after the breakout of the W-bottom pattern, there was actually no retest to confirm support. Therefore, from a medium to long-term perspective, 89,000 is the position to look bullish from the left side.

Having discussed the weekly chart, it is still too far out. Let's return to a short-term view from the daily chart: Looking at the 2H, the ascending trend line at the bottom of 75,000 has been broken, indicating that the upward trend of Bitcoin has started to weaken. However, from the short-term blue ascending trend line, it is still holding up for now.

But for those in contracts, be careful. Once the short-term blue ascending trend line is broken and can't recover, the probability of dropping to the 927 support level is very high. After all, there is quite a lot of bullish liquidity at this position. So for those looking to be bullish in the short term, 927 is a pretty good position to observe, but remember, once it breaks below 927, stop losses immediately, because if it breaks here, it is very likely to fill the lower FVG at the position of 89,000.