The US Federal Reserve has attracted close attention from cryptocurrency investors, who are waiting for decisions that could significantly impact Bitcoin's price. Amid the consolidation of the leading cryptocurrency's price around $94,000, upcoming economic events could set a new trend, especially considering the increasing dependence of crypto assets on macroeconomic indicators in 2025.
Service Sector Activity Index
The first data that crypto investors should pay attention to this week will be the S&P Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, which will be released on Monday, May 5 at 16:45 and 17:00 MSK, respectively. These indicators reflect the state of the US service sector for April. The median forecast for PMI is 51.0 after the previous 51.4, and for ISM is 50.4% after 50.8%.
Capital Hungry analyst commented: "Tariffs have not significantly affected the services sector, financial conditions remain tight. The US economy has shown some signs of declining resilience, and the Fed is not rushing to change policy."
Strong data typically bolsters confidence in traditional markets, which could reduce Bitcoin's appeal as investors prefer stocks. On the other hand, a weak PMI may indicate an economic downturn, increasing demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty.
US Trade Deficit
Another important indicator will be the US trade deficit (Tuesday, May 6, 15:30 MSK), which will show the gap between exports and imports in March. The median forecast is -$124.7 billion after the previous figure of -$122.7 billion.
An increase in the deficit, especially amid discussions about tariffs during the Trump administration, could weaken the dollar, which is usually favorable for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that often move in the opposite direction of US dollar strength.
"The growing trade deficit in America is selling the nation out from under us," noted a Zerohedge analyst, quoting Warren Buffett.
According to Reuters, economists have lowered their forecasts after the trade deficit reached a record high and companies began to build inventories amid uncertainty caused by tariff policies.
FOMC Meeting and Jerome Powell's Press Conference
The main event of the week will undoubtedly be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the subsequent press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Wednesday, May 7, 21:00 and 21:30 MSK). While markets expect interest rates to remain at 4.25%-4.5%, the tone of the Fed will determine market participants' sentiment.
"The FOMC meeting will take place on Wednesday, followed by Chairman Powell's remarks. It's less about the decision and more about Powell's comments. A very busy week of Fed representatives' speeches, as a full day of Fed speakers is scheduled for Friday," wrote market expert Peter Tarr.
Hawkish signals indicating tightening policy or ongoing concerns about inflation could strengthen the dollar, which would put pressure on Bitcoin's price. Conversely, dovish comments suggesting rate cuts could stimulate buying sentiment in risk assets, positively affecting cryptocurrencies.
Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly data on initial jobless claims will also be key for crypto traders (Thursday, May 8, 15:30 MSK). This indicator measures new claims for unemployment benefits, providing a current snapshot of the labor market.
For the week ending April 26, there were 241,000 initial claims registered. The median forecast this time is 230,000.
"Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, the highest level since February and significantly exceeding forecasts of 224,000," noted analyst Michael Gayed.
Claims below expectations signal economic strength, potentially bolstering traditional markets and reducing Bitcoin's appeal. A strong labor market may also strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies due to Bitcoin's inverse correlation with USD.
The cryptocurrency market will continue to closely monitor all economic indicators, especially in light of the growing correlation with traditional financial markets. The Fed meeting and subsequent comments from Powell could be determining factors for the direction of Bitcoin's price in the near future.
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