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How will the market move this week? Three key points: Powell, tariffs, and data.
1⃣ First, let's talk about economic data:

Last week's three core points:
Negative GDP growth in the first quarter, but consumption remains strong, easing recession worries.
April's non-farm payroll exceeded expectations, with new jobs not solely due to tariffs poaching talent.
Tech giants' earnings reports (Microsoft, Google, Meta) performed well, capital expenditures are still rising, alleviating concerns about weak earnings reports.

Overall, there’s no reason for the market to be too pessimistic in the short term. The real concern is the aftereffects of the tariffs being fully implemented, but April is just the beginning.

2⃣ Progress in tariff negotiations, the market is extremely sensitive:

The atmosphere of China-US negotiations has eased, moving from “not talking at all” to “in contact” to “under evaluation,” with the tone gradually relaxing; last Friday, reactions in New Taiwan Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar were already very noticeable.
Japan-US negotiations have hit a snag, with the US unwilling to budge on auto and steel tariffs, and Japan's finance minister even stating “US bonds can also be discussed.”

India may reach an agreement the fastest; the EU and South Korea are making slower progress.

Last week, Trump also exempted auto tariffs for Canada and Mexico, releasing a bit of goodwill.

3⃣ Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting + Market rhythm:
This week, there’s only the interest rate decision and Powell's press conference, with little to no rate hike expected, likely to be “neutral to hawkish.”

Last week’s strong data gives the Fed reason to hold steady and continue observing.

If negotiations are still progressing, Powell doesn’t need to act urgently.

Currently, the overall market direction remains unchanged, with US stocks returning to the 4.2 high point, and Bitcoin having touched 97K; the short-term outlook is oscillating slightly stronger. But don’t forget, over the weekend, Trump again mentioned imposing a 100% tariff on imported films, and the market could panic again at any moment.

In conclusion: fundamentals are okay, policies are variable, the market has confidence but may find it difficult to surge all at once. This week, let’s see what Powell says and keep an eye on whether there’s the first truly finalized trade agreement; if there is, that would be a clear positive.