Bitcoin $BTC Short-Term Trend Analysis

From the perspective of the three connections and three disconnections in the theory of Chan: The 5-day KC upper track and the weekly KC upper track are a type of disconnection point. Rising to the range of 94687-95630 and a MACD divergence is the second type of disconnection point. Falling below 92910 and then rising below 92910 is the third type of disconnection point.

The 6-hour level Wyckoff distribution model has clearly shown PSY high points, BC high points, ST high points, AR ice points, UT high points, and UTAD high points:

The 6-hour level chart is relatively easy to help identify the overall direction as shown in the figure below:

(1) The rise from 74508 on April 7 to 86100 on April 13 is a super cycle 3-2-X, with an internal structure that fits the wxyxz corrective wave, which can be divided into five segments: W, X, Y and XX, Z.

<1> The rise from 74508 on April 7 to 86100 on April 13 is a super cycle 3-2-X-W wave, with an internal structure that fits the wxyxz corrective wave.

<2> The decline from 86100 on April 13 to 83949.52 on April 20 is a super cycle 3-2-X-X wave, with an internal structure that fits the wxyxz corrective wave.

<3> The rise from 83949.52 on April 20 to 94694.05 on April 23 is a super cycle 3-2-X-Y wave, with an internal structure that fits the wxy corrective wave.

<4> The decline from 94694.05 on April 23 to 92910 on April 30 is a super cycle 3-2-X-XX wave, with an internal structure that fits the wxyxz corrective wave, which is exactly the same as the decline from April 13 to April 20, 2025. The methods of the Zhuang family are so consistent, amazing!

<5> The rise from 92910 on April 30 to 97895.68 on May 2 is a super cycle 3-2-X-Z wave, with an internal structure that fits the wxyxz corrective wave, which may have already ended.

(2) Based on the rise amplitude, the rise from 74508 to 97895.68 has satisfied the Fibonacci 0.618 of the decline from 109588 to 74508. The end of the rise here completely conforms to wave theory.

(3) Maintaining below 93218.14-93907.14 for a long time basically confirms the end of the fifth segment rise, which means the entire super cycle 3-2-X wave rise is also basically confirmed to be over!

(4) Satisfies the condition of falling more than 7016 from the highest peak, which means [the decline below 90879.68 can definitively conclude that the entire super cycle 3-2-X wave rise has completely ended].

(5) The United States has an important interest rate decision meeting on May 7, and China has one on May 8 at 2:00 AM, with Powell speaking at 2:30 AM. This period may trigger a significant decline, everyone must be vigilant!

(7) No matter where the rise goes, it is an upward movement in a bear market. The rise is not a reversal, there is no bull market, after the super cycle 3-2-X wave ends, it will drop to below 74508.