Five Major Signals! Bitcoin is Set to Experience the Strongest Surge Since 2020
Swan analyst stated on May 3: “This could be Bitcoin's strongest bullish momentum since 2020!” As the market trend shifts, five key signals are building momentum for Bitcoin’s explosion.
Signal One: Gold Takes a Breather, Bitcoin Takes Over
In 2025, gold skyrocketed with an increase of 30% from the beginning of the year until now, reaching a historic high of over $3,400 per ounce on April 22. However, this week gold corrected about 3%, while Bitcoin rose 4% against the trend. Analysts point out: “Every time Bitcoin shows this chasing momentum, it indicates that a major market movement is about to begin.” Looking back at the last similar situation, Bitcoin surged from $70,000 to $108,000.
Signal Two: Global Liquidity Bottoms Out and Rebounds
Since 2021, the global M2 money supply has risen for the first time, with data from the St. Louis Fed showing a 4% growth in M2 over the past 12 months. Historical patterns indicate that when there is excessive money supply and a decline in trust in fiat currencies, Bitcoin tends to “absorb” this market momentum—every bull market has followed this trajectory.
Signal Three: Volatility Approaches 2020 Highs
Although the Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX index has retreated, there are undercurrents in the market. Economist Timothy Peterson noted that if the VIX falls below 18, it will enter a “risk appetite” phase, which is favorable for Bitcoin. His high-accuracy tracking model predicts: If the VIX remains low, Bitcoin is expected to reach $135,000 within three months.
Signal Four: Key Indicators Trigger Bull Market Starting Point
Swan analysts noted that the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has rebounded strongly from 1.74—historical experience shows that this rebound is a sign of the start of a Bitcoin bull market. The selling pressure in the $90,000-$100,000 range has significantly weakened, prices have broken through cost levels, retail selling has nearly exhausted, and a typical “pre-surge” structure has formed.
Signal Five: Declining Interest Rates Boost Coin Prices
Peterson calculated that for every 25 basis points drop in interest rates, Bitcoin's price increases by about 10%. Given the current trend of declining interest rates, a reduction of 75 basis points in the next 1-2 months is not impossible, which will directly push Bitcoin towards the $130,000 threshold.
In the past month, Bitcoin has accumulated a rise of over 15%, closing at $98,000 on Friday, a new high since February 21. A long-awaited bull market storm may really be coming.
