Bitcoin Traders’ Favorite Lottery Ticket for H1 2025: The $300K $BTC

Call Option

In the ever-volatile world of crypto trading, few plays capture the imagination like ultra-out-of-the-money (OTM) call options—what some traders affectionately call "lottery tickets." And for the first half of 2025, the standout among them is the Deribit-listed $300,000 strike bitcoin call expiring on June 26.

The Speculative Frenzy Behind the $300K Call

Despite Bitcoin trading well below $100,000, over 5,000 contracts have been opened on the $300K call, giving it a notional open interest of $484 million. That makes it the second-most popular bet in the June expiry, behind only the $110K strike.

These numbers reflect strong speculative interest, even if the probability of BTC tripling in less than two months is slim. Traders appear unfazed. For some, the $300K call isn’t just a bet on price—it’s a hedge against tail risks like hyperinflation or sweeping pro-crypto regulatory shifts.

“Perhaps, people like buying lottery tickets," said Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at GSR. "There are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge.”

Why Traders Bet on “Wings”

Deep OTM options like the $300K call—also known as “wings”—are significantly cheaper than at-the-money options but offer outsized potential payoffs. The appeal lies in asymmetric risk: low upfront cost, with the potential for high returns if a rare market move plays out.

According to GSR's Simranjeet Singh, some of the interest is driven by hopes that U.S. regulatory narratives will shift in crypto’s favor. One speculative thread includes chatter about a potential U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, briefly floated earlier this year.

Big Expiry, Bigger Bets

Debit, which processes over 75% of global crypto options volume, is seeing its largest upcoming quarterly settlement on June 26. These quarter-end expiries often create volatility, as traders rebalance portfolios and close out positions.