Technical analysis on the 1D timeframe with Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, Stoch RSI & MACD.
After a strong recovery at the beginning of the year, Solana (SOL) is showing signs of stagnation around the 146.73 USDT area. The daily chart is entering a 'fateful' phase as the price approaches the Ichimoku cloud, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and momentum indicators are giving conflicting signals. So, is this the time to prepare for a breakout or just a pullback before further decline?
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1. Ichimoku Cloud: The price touches the top of the cloud – a decisive area.
• The price is currently testing the top of the red cloud, which is considered strong resistance.
• Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are crossing each other, creating a neutral state – no clear trend.
• Chikou Span touching the price zone; if it breaks above, it will be a clear bullish signal.
=> If SOL closes above 150 USDT and completely breaks through the cloud, the likelihood of entering a mid-term uptrend is very high. Conversely, if rejected and falls back into the cloud, the short-term reversal risk will increase significantly.
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2. Bollinger Bands: The bands are narrowing – signaling a major breakout is coming.
• The daily Bollinger Bands are noticeably narrowing, indicating an impending breakout.
• The price is near the middle line (MA20), indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.
=> If SOL breaks the upper band (~151 USDT) with large volume, that could be a confirmation signal for a breakout up to the 160 – 170 USDT range. If it breaks below the lower band, the likelihood of retesting the 130 area is very high.
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3. Stochastic RSI: Currently crossing down – warning of a correction.
• The Stoch RSI indicator has fallen out of the overbought zone, and %K is crossing below %D, signaling increasing short-term selling pressure.
• However, it has not yet entered the oversold zone, so there is no clear reversal signal.
=> This stage requires patient observation, don't FOMO too quickly.
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4. MACD: Still maintaining upward momentum but has weakened.
• The MACD line is still above the signal line, the histogram is still green but has narrowed – the upward momentum is weakening.
• If MACD crosses down → confirms that the technical correction may extend further.
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Summary: SOL is at a critical moment.
The market is 'holding its breath' waiting for a reaction from the price around the Ichimoku cloud. A breakout could lead to a strong rise, but if rejected, SOL could very well turn back to 130 before finding new momentum. Trade based on probabilities and scenarios, rather than emotions.
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Please conduct thorough research and manage your capital carefully.
