Many people would say that pure technical analysis is useless. I can only say it varies from person to person, because the financial capital market relies on capital, then on information asymmetry and cognitive differences, and only then on so-called candlestick analysis.
But let's ask ourselves, the vast majority of us do not have the capital to shake the market or change market trends, nor do we have the political influence to affect the market. We cannot possibly obtain the latest information instantly; by the time we know the news, the market has already moved significantly, which is why I often say that news is used to validate market trends.
So for the vast majority of us, we can only analyze market trends based on our subjective judgment. Of course, the larger the market cap, the more valuable the candlestick analysis becomes.
This certainly requires years of practical trading experience in the market and sufficient understanding of the financial market to make relatively correct judgments. Trading is an art and a practice, and for many of us, it poses a significant test.
This is why I criticized BG for losing 20 million dollars to others, because BG's Xie Jiayin did not realize BG's own issues. BG's backend risk control team made a very basic, fatal, and unforgivable mistake, and of course, that mistake can only be paid for by BG itself.
Because when I was in traditional finance, I also managed backend data risk control involving over a hundred million funds. Our backend risk control team had a total of six people, with two in a group, working in shifts for eight hours, 24 hours a day, monitoring backend data. If we discovered any anomalies in the backend data, we had to react and make decisions immediately.
I can confidently tell everyone that through your 5 transaction data points, I can analyze what level you are at. Many may think I am bragging, but I can assure you that based on the proportion of your total funds allocated, the timing of your trades, the frequency of your transactions, and the frequency and amounts of your deposits and withdrawals, I can determine what level of trading skill you are at.
I can further analyze and determine whether you belong to the conservative type, aggressive type, mature trader type, or a novice trader who has just entered the market through 10 transaction data. I can also assess your overall strength based on your deposit and withdrawal frequency, determining what level you are at. Moreover, I can analyze your current psychological state through your trading data. This ability to engage in remote competition is an essential skill for all of us who work in backend big data risk control.
When I used to deal with bulk commodities like silver and crude oil, whenever non-farm payroll data was released, our backend deposits would reach several million at least. Each time we encountered large clients depositing millions, we were both surprised and thrilled; it was truly thrilling, testing our judgment.
In the past, when I dealt with bulk commodities, the deposit and withdrawal operations were handled by the four major domestic banks, and Agricultural Bank allowed 24-hour deposits and withdrawals. Furthermore, customers' profits and losses were entirely settled by Agricultural Bank as a third-party bank, so at that time, customers dared to deposit several million directly.
Of course, if our backend risk control team does not perform well, not only would we lose our jobs, but the entire industry would be unsustainable. Therefore, BG being exploited by others is entirely due to their own backend risk control team's slow response; it is truly unfair to blame others.
Now let's review the market. On April 1st, I mentioned that Bitcoin would pull back to around 💲96000, as based on my more than ten years of experience in the financial market, a pullback to 💲96000 is considered a technical correction.
Later, on April 9, I again said that Bitcoin would pull back to around 💲96000 with an 80% probability, and the extreme pullback would reach 💲102000. On April 9, the daily level recorded a significant bullish candle, which clearly indicated that the main institutional funds were buying heavily. Retail investors simply cannot match such buying power. I didn't even need to look at the trading volume; this signal was vividly reflected in the pure naked candlestick chart.
However, we later learned about the policy news; Trump finally eased restrictions on trade with China, and he and Powell reached a consensus on some level. But by the time we received this news, Bitcoin had already reached a relatively high price. I believe that large institutional funds had already keenly captured market news and opportunities. However, many ordinary retail investors simply do not have such capabilities and cannot sensitively capture critical market information.
Later, on April 12, I again said that the pullback of Bitcoin to 💲96000 is not a big problem, and the extreme pullback will reach 💲102000. Because on April 11, Bitcoin closed with a small bullish candle, completely repairing the level of 💲84000, so a slight adjustment and strong breakout of 💲88500 is just a matter of time. These risk control strategies are all derived from my analysis of the pure naked candlestick chart, and of course, relying on these alone is far from enough. You also need a profound understanding of the financial capital market to develop a relatively accurate risk control strategy.
Next, I will break down the future market trend of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at the daily level around 💲98000, and there is a pullback here. I tentatively consider that Bitcoin is in a technical window to repair and pull back to 💲96000. Bitcoin has repeatedly touched the 💲92000 line at the daily level, and as long as it operates above 💲92000, it is undergoing a strong adjustment.
On April 22, Bitcoin's daily level recorded a strong bullish candle, breaking through and stabilizing above 💲88500, with the daily level strongly closing above 💲92000. This was certainly due to a large influx of institutional funds, and the core retail investors responded quickly to follow up with buying.
Therefore, as long as Bitcoin at the daily level does not completely digest the large bullish candle from April 22, meaning as long as the level below 💲87000 is not strongly broken by the daily level, the bullish pullback trend of Bitcoin still exists. However, this also indicates that the main institutional funds are not optimistic about Bitcoin's trend, and Bitcoin is transitioning from a strong consolidation into a relatively weak range consolidation.
Next, there is the support line below the Bitcoin at 💲83000, which serves as the last defense line for the bullish trend of Bitcoin.
