#韩国 Is it crazy to stake $800 billion of pensions on Bitcoin? Is the presidential candidate out of their mind or playing a big game?

Breaking news! Kim Moon-soo, the ruling party's presidential candidate in South Korea, has made a bold move today: he wants the national pension fund to invest directly in Bitcoin! The National Pension Service (NPS), which manages 1,036 trillion won (approximately $827 billion), might soon rush into cryptocurrency trading! The moment this news broke, the entire crypto community was in an uproar—this is the world's third-largest pension fund, and if it really pours the people's retirement money into Bitcoin, is it a financial revolution or a gamble?

I. Why choose Bitcoin? 36% of voters are 'crypto enthusiasts'!

The enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies among South Koreans has long transcended boundaries. The latest data shows that there are 16.3 million cryptocurrency holders in South Korea, accounting for 36% of the national electorate. This means that one in every three voters is trading cryptocurrencies! Kim Moon-soo's strategy is quite astute: as long as he secures the votes of this wave of 'crypto enthusiasts', he can win the presidential election on June 3.

Even more astonishingly, South Korea's cryptocurrency market itself is already 'globally top-tier'. By December 2024, Bitcoin's price once surpassed the $100,000 mark, and Upbit's trading volume doubled. Young people have long regarded trading cryptocurrencies as a 'second job', and even middle-aged individuals aged 50-60 are starting to invest their retirement funds, with users over 60 surpassing 7.75 million, holding a total of 6.76 trillion won. This is not just investing; it's a nationwide celebration!

II. Trillion-dollar pension enters the scene; does South Korea want to become Asia's 'Bitcoin billionaire'?

The ambitions of the National Pension Service (NPS) can no longer be hidden! Although it hasn't directly bought Bitcoin yet, it has long been laying out its cryptocurrency strategy through 'indirect means': in 2023, it bought Coinbase stock, and in 2024, it invested $33.75 million in MicroStrategy (the world's largest Bitcoin holder). Now Kim Moon-soo is directly proposing to 'normalize' this by allowing NPS and Korea Investment Corporation (KIC) to invest directly in Bitcoin, which is a bigger step than Australia's AMP pension (0.05% allocation)!

If the policy is implemented, South Korea could become the first Asian country to take the plunge. It's important to note that the NPS's investment trends are a global barometer—whatever it buys, capital follows. Once NPS enters the market, Bitcoin liquidity will explode, and exchanges like Upbit may directly rise to 'global top-tier' status, potentially sparking a financing wave for the entire blockchain industry. Kim Moon-soo's move appears to please voters but is, in fact, aimed at making South Korea the 'Asian cryptocurrency center', competing with the U.S. and Singapore for the pie.

III. Risks more thrilling than bungee jumping! Have we forgotten the lesson of Bitcoin's 30% plunge?

But nothing comes for free; the risks are more thrilling than bungee jumping! Bitcoin's volatility is like a 'heart attack package': during the curfew in South Korea in December 2024, Bitcoin once plummeted by 30%-50%, leaving countless retail investors with nothing. If the NPS invests directly, and another crash occurs, pension reductions are no joke—after all, this is the 'gravesite fund' for 16.3 million South Koreans!

The more troublesome issue is the legal and regulatory 'tripwires'. South Korea just passed the (Virtual Asset User Protection Law) in 2023, requiring exchanges to verify identities and manage funds, and plans to impose a 20% cryptocurrency capital gains tax (including local taxes) by 2025. Kim Moon-soo's proposal needs to amend the (National Pension Law) to clarify investment ratios and risk control rules. For instance, should there be an investment cap of 0.05% like the AMP pension? If not, who will take responsibility if there are losses?

IV. Competitors unleash their moves: the Democratic Party wants to 'harvest the chives'?

Other candidates are also not idle; their policies are increasingly aggressive! Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung supports cryptocurrency legislation, but his 'killer move' is a 20% capital gains tax—although the tax-free threshold is raised from 2.5 million won to 50 million won, this still hurts ordinary retail investors. The third-party candidate Lee Jun-suk is more direct, advocating for relaxed blockchain regulations and directly 'lying flat in support'.

Kim Moon-soo's policy appears radical but is actually smarter. Allowing pension fund investments can attract retail investor support and stabilize coin prices through institutional entry. However, there's a contradiction: if the pension funds make money, will they have to pay taxes? If they do, a 20% tax rate might offset some profits; if they don't, other investors would certainly be unhappy. This requires Kim Moon-soo to 'play Tai Chi' during legislation, balancing taxation and incentives.

V. International big shots are watching: is South Korea's move a win or a loss?

Global capital is watching South Korea! Australia's AMP pension has already invested $17.2 million in Bitcoin futures, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund has also considered investing but was deterred by high volatility. If South Korea succeeds, it could trigger a chain reaction—Japan and Singapore's pensions might follow suit, and the 'institutionalization era' of cryptocurrencies could truly be upon us.

But the risks are equally globalized. Bitcoin's price is greatly influenced by U.S. policies: when Trump won, Bitcoin rose by 40%; when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, Bitcoin plummeted. If South Korea invests on a large scale, it must coordinate regulations with the U.S. and Japan; otherwise, capital outflow could teach them a lesson in no time. For example, if KIC invests in overseas crypto projects, it must comply with local anti-money laundering regulations, or face sanctions in no time.

VI. The outcome of this gamble: June 3 will reveal all!

Now, everyone is waiting for the election results on June 3. If Kim Moon-soo wins, South Korea could become a new benchmark in the global cryptocurrency market; if Lee Jae-myung takes office, high taxes might dampen market enthusiasm. More critically, the revision of the pension law requires congressional approval, and the Democratic Party currently holds the majority of seats; the game between the two sides has just begun.

What should retail investors do? If you are a 'crypto veteran', you can pay attention to policy trends, especially the holdings data of NPS and KIC; if you are conservative, it's advisable to hold onto your wallets, as the rollercoaster of Bitcoin's market is not something everyone can bear. As for the future of South Korean pensions, to sum it up in one sentence: this is not investing; this is a gamble using the nation's fortune as the stake!

Finally, let me ask: if it were you, would you support using pensions to invest in Bitcoin? See you in the comments!