Based on the real-time market data of Ethereum (ETH) on May 5, 2025 (current price $1,792.15, EMA30 resistance $1,817.83, MACD short positions dominant), combined with technical indicators and volume-price structure, the following precise strategy for 1 hour is formulated.
Core Strategy and Levels
1. Resistance level short positions
- Entry Conditions: Price rebounds to 1,805-1,817 USD (EMA30 + MA26 overlapping resistance), coupled with 1-hour MACD histogram shrinking or KDJ overbought (K > 50).
- Target: Pull back to $1,780-$1,790 (intraday low support), break down to look for $1,760 (weekly EMA60).
- Stop Loss: Set above $1,825 to guard against false breakouts.
2. Buy on support rebound
- Entry conditions: Price retracement stabilizes in the range of $1,770-$1,780 (daily EMA120 + on-chain liquidation dense area), combined with RSI < 25 or bottom divergence signal.
- Target: Bounce to $1,790-$1,800 (EMA5 resistance), take profits in batches after breaking through.
- Stop loss: strictly set below $1,760, risk ≤3%.
3. Breakthrough Short Selling
- Entry conditions: Price breaks below 1,780 USD (strong intraday support), confirmed by a 1-hour close and volume > 80 million USDT.
- Target: a drop to 1,760-1,750 USD (psychological level + Fibonacci extension), breaking down to look for 1,730 USD.
- Stop loss: dynamically adjusted to above $1,790 to protect profits.
Key Signals and Risk Control
- MACD Momentum: Current MACD bar -1.8 (short positions continue), DIF ( -6.49) crosses below DEA ( -4.69) deepening the downward trend, and a rebound requires volume support.
- KDJ Indicator: J value 30.02 (close to oversold), if the price sharply drops to $1,770, it may trigger a technical rebound.
- BTC correlation: If Bitcoin loses **82,000 USD, ETH may accelerate its pullback; if it holds above 84,000 USD, it may drive ETH to rebound to 1,800 USD.
- On-chain risk: The current price of ETH is approaching the option's maximum pain point of $1,780. If it drops below $1,760, it could trigger over $360 million in liquidations.
Position and Discipline
- Tota$$ETH
Summary
ETH is currently in a short positions dominant range (1,770-1,817 USD), primarily taking high shorts during the day, with low longs as a supplement. If it encounters resistance at 1,805 USD, a light short position can be attempted; if it breaks below 1,780 USD, continue to short in the direction of the trend. Pay attention to technical rebound signals in the oversold area, strictly set stop-losses, and avoid counter-trend operatio#BinanceHODLerSTO $ETH
