The doomsday prophecy of a massive earthquake in the Nankai Trough of Japan has recently sparked 'tsunami-like' panic on social media in Hong Kong and Taiwan. With the Japanese government raising its earthquake risk assessment and a 25-year-old prophetic comic 'accurately hitting' the date, along with the aftershocks of a strong earthquake in Myanmar, some Hong Kong residents have begun to hoard supplies, plan escape routes, and even consider climbing mountains for refuge. However, experts point out that the panic is far greater than the actual risk, calling for the public to respond rationally.
In January 2025, the Japanese government's Earthquake Investigation Committee raised the probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 'huge earthquake' in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years from 70% to 80%, and predicted economic losses could exceed 292 trillion yen, with a potential death toll of up to 298,000. The region has not experienced a major earthquake since the mid-1940s, and geological monitoring shows that energy accumulation has reached a critical point.
What truly ignited the panic was a prophetic comic published in 1999 (The Future I See). The author, Ryoshu Ryu, claimed in the book that he saw in a prophetic dream 'an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, with a landmass rising from the sea connecting Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the Philippines,' predicting that the disaster would occur at 5 AM on July 5, 2025. Since Ryu was once credited with 'accurately predicting' the 311 Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, this date quickly became regarded as 'Doomsday Judgment Day' by netizens in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
On social media, the number of related doomsday groups has surged. Among them, the Facebook group 'Japanese Prophecy: The Future I See' has more than 250,000 members, with chat rooms divided by regions in Hong Kong and Taiwan, discussing topics ranging from 'how to escape death' to 'mountain evacuation routes.' The evacuation plans circulated in the group include: residents of East Kowloon going to Lam Tin, Anding Village, or Fei Ngor Shan, while residents of New Territories East plan to climb mountains and 'catch wild boars for food.'
Some citizens have already purchased white rice, instant noodles, canned food, military-style compressed rations, and equipped themselves with drinking water filters, camping gear, thermal foil blankets, and emergency medicine. East Kowloon netizens suggest 'packing supplies into backpacks to escape at any time,' and some families have prepared three emergency backpacks for two adults and three children.
Some people are planning 'technical' survival strategies: purchasing hand-cranked generators, charging cables that display wattage, oil lamps or water drop lamps, and radios that can receive external information. Some Hong Kong residents have bought automatic inflatable life jackets, claiming they can save lives in case of flooding. Even netizens have uploaded 'doomsday survival guide' videos, teaching skills such as making fire by friction and boiling dirty water for distilled water.
Businesses have also caught wind of the opportunity. Multiple online shopping platforms have launched 'doomsday emergency kits,' priced between 300 and 500 RMB, containing compressed food, multifunctional hand-crank radio, etc. Some merchants are promoting under the gimmick of 'doomsday countdown,' leading to a surge in sales of certain camping gear.
In the face of panic, experts are calling for rationality. The Secretary-General of the Hong Kong UFO Society, Siu-tung, pointed out that the probability of a major disaster occurring in Hong Kong is 'extremely low,' and that citizens hoarding supplies is 'excessive panic.' He cited the 2012 Maya prophecy of 'the end of the world' as an example, stating that he took four cameras to Lantau Island to shoot for 72 hours, confirming that 'the sun, moon, and stars continue their regular cycles, and the prophecy did not come true.'
He emphasized that rather than worrying about doomsday prophecies, we should pay attention to the Earth's ecological environment: 'What will destroy the Earth is not earthquakes or tsunamis, but pollution caused by humanity.' He suggested that the public adopt a proactive attitude, such as blessing the Earth through religious faith or reducing carbon emissions and protecting forests.
Scientific data also supports this view. If a 9.1 magnitude shallow earthquake occurs in the Nankai Trough, simulations show that parts of Hong Kong's coastline may be affected by tsunami waves, but due to Hong Kong's location outside the Pearl River Estuary, with a complex coastline and many islands acting as barriers, and the relatively shallow waters of the South China Sea, the energy of the tsunami waves will be significantly weakened during propagation. The tsunami waves generated by the 9.0 magnitude earthquake in northeastern Japan in 2011 only caused minor water level anomalies when they reached Hong Kong, without causing substantial damage to the city.
In addition, the Hong Kong government has established a tsunami warning system covering the surrounding sea areas, which, combined with real-time tidal monitoring and numerical simulation technology, can issue warnings hours in advance, allowing time for coastal residents to evacuate.
Despite experts calling for rationality, some citizens still choose to be 'prepared for the worst.' Mr. Chan, a resident of Tai Po, stated that since the 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28, he has believed in Ryu's prophecy and has purchased two bags of white rice, two boxes of instant noodles, 20 cans of luncheon meat, and a full set of camping gear, planning to take his wife and son to the mountains for refuge when an earthquake occurs. 'It's just a precaution; if nothing happens, I'll eat instant noodles every day and go camping more often during holidays, it won't be a waste,' he said.
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