1. Many people say they are following trend cycles, yet they run away after a wave; some say they are trading in waves, but they endure the entire bull market cycle. The fundamental problem is the failure to distinguish clearly between the concepts and operational logic of cycles, trends, and waves.
2. Cycle is the large rhythm of the market, the big structure of price movement, such as the alternation of bull and bear markets; trend is the direction of price movement, a continuous movement within the cycle; wave is the short-term fluctuation within the trend, a small rhythm of entry and exit opportunities.
3. Taking BTC as an example: a drop from 110000 to 74000 is a complete downtrend; while a rebound from 74000 to 97000 is an upward wave within the trend. The levels of the two are different, and the understanding and operational logic are also completely different.
4. If you say you are following a trend cycle, then as long as this round of rising does not effectively break below 88500 (key support), you should not easily exit the market; otherwise, it is a misunderstanding or interference with the trend cycle, or even a false proposition.
5. If you say you are trading in waves, then it is completely reasonable to enter and exit flexibly between 74000 and 97000, but you must recognize your operational level; you cannot use wave thinking to judge trends, and even more so, you cannot use trends to guide wave trading.
