WIN RATE ≠ SUCCESS

A high win rate can be misleading. Because the issue is not how many times you win, but the difference between what you win and what you lose.

Psychological Trap:

• When seeing an 80% win rate, most people think the system is "perfect." But in reality: If your profits are small and your losses are large, even if you win 8 trades, if you give back all your profit in 2 trades, the statistics lie.

This is called "Risk Asymmetry Blindness." A high win rate but a negative expectancy silently sinks you.

What Do The Real Data Say?

✅ System A:

• Win rate: 80%

• RR: 1:0.5

• Net result after 10 trades:

8 × 50$ = +400$

2 × -100$ = -200$

→ +200$

✅ System B:

• Win rate: 40%

• RR: 1:2

• Net result after 10 trades:

4 × 200$ = +800$

6 × -100$ = -600$

→ +200$

📌 The same result, different psychology. System B has a lower win rate but wins big when it does win. Few can psychologically withstand this strategy.

This is why systems with low win rates tend to work more healthily but are less liked.

Key Metrics You Need to Follow:

✅ Expectancy: Expected return per trade

✅ Profit Factor: Total profit / total loss

✅ Average win vs average loss ratio

✅ Max consecutive losses: Measures the system's psychological resilience

✅ R-multiple distribution: The gains in relation to the risks of the trades

Conclusion:

❌ Don’t let the win rate deceive you

❌ A strategy with a high win rate but low profit is like psychological doping

❌ Long-term success is a combination of mathematical reality + psychological resilience

Profitable system:

• Wins 40%

• Works with 1:2 RR

• Remains profitable after 100 trades

• But most people give up on this 40% path after the 5th stop

The market rewards not the frequent winner, but the one who walks patiently. You are as strong as how you manage your losses, not how much you win.