Three years of experience in trading cryptocurrencies: survival rules that help you avoid 5 years of detours!
1. The secret to breaking through with small capital (200,000 survival line)
Remember: Don't touch contracts with a capital below 200,000! With a capital of 50,000, rolling the account three times can break through the one million threshold. Before the 100x market of DOGE in 2021, there were signs: ① The perpetual funding rate on exchanges broke 0.1% ② The total liquidation amount across the network exceeded 500 million for three consecutive days ③ Community activity surged by 300%, withdraw the principal, and continue to gamble with profits.
2. The cruel truth of monetizing cognition
Force yourself to review for three hours every day. Remember this formula: simulated trading profit × 0.3 = real trading profit. When you can achieve 300% profit in simulated trading for three months with a maximum drawdown <15%, then consider real trading. Especially the sudden market movements between 3-5 AM to test your mindset.
3. The countdown to the death of realized gains (must-read!)
Remember the "three-minute rule": a sudden positive news spike in the first three minutes is often a trap. Check on-chain data (recommended: Nansen), if the transfer volume of the top 10 addresses surges by 200% within one hour after the news is announced, immediately place a market sell order. Remember the night before the LUNA crash in 2022, whale addresses collectively moved 36 hours in advance.
4. The bloody harvest during holidays
Must reduce holdings by 50% in the 72 hours before the Spring Festival/Christmas! Statistics show: the average drop in the 48 hours before the Spring Festival from 2020-2023 reached 23.6%. It is recommended to use the Coinglass long-short ratio indicator; when the long-short ratio >1.5, the probability of liquidation before the holiday is as high as 82%.
5. Capital management technique
It is recommended to use the 532 configuration: 50% mainstream coins (BTC/ETH), 30% new public chains (SOL/AVAX), 20% MEME coins. As soon as profits exceed 30%, withdraw 50% to a cold wallet. Remember this magical formula: principal × (1 + 30%)^5 = 4.56 times the principal.
6. The golden secret of short-term trading
Focus on the 15-minute K-line + EMA21 moving average combination. When the trading volume breaks three times the 20-day average, the win rate can reach 68%. Pay special attention to the time window from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM Eastern Time, which is when Wall Street institutions adjust their positions.
7. Opportunities in a crash
The waterfall three-wave rule: The first wave kills retail investors, the second wave kills leverage, and the third wave kills faith. When combined with a futures funding rate breaking -0.05%, the rebound probability exceeds 75%. In March 2023, BTC rebounded from 20,000 to 30,000, perfectly illustrating this rule.
8. Set a dynamic stop-loss line: set the first stop-loss at ±3% of the opening price, immediately reduce holdings by 50% if it falls below, and if it continues to fall by 2%, close all positions. If losses exceed 5% of the principal, adjust your mindset.
