May 4, 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical technical and on-chain threshold that could define its next major move. According to on-chain data, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis — currently at $93,460 — has emerged as a pivotal level for market sentiment and price direction.
What Is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis?
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis represents the average price at which coins held for less than 155 days were acquired. It's a widely respected on-chain metric used to gauge the sentiment and positioning of recent market participants. When Bitcoin’s spot price is above this level, it generally indicates that newer investors are in profit, often contributing to bullish momentum.
The Bullish Scenario: Targeting $132,330
If Bitcoin can hold convincingly above the $93,460 STH Cost Basis, it signals strength and confidence among recent buyers. Historically, such conditions have led to rapid upward moves, as profit-taking pressure eases and FOMO (fear of missing out) kicks in. This could open the door for BTC to rally toward the next major psychological and technical level: $132,330.
This target isn’t arbitrary. It aligns with Fibonacci extensions, historical resistance zones, and sentiment thresholds that often serve as magnets in bullish cycles.
The Bearish Risk: A Slide Toward $72,420
On the flip side, if Bitcoin loses its grip on the $93,460 level, short-term holders may find themselves underwater. This tends to erode confidence, trigger stop-losses, and accelerate selling — potentially initiating a correction down to $72,420. This lower level may coincide with longer-term holder support or a historical demand zone, offering a possible rebound point.$BTC
