$BTC It has been over a year since the fourth halving, and Bitcoin is still stagnating — trading about 12% below the ATH set at the inauguration of Donald Trump. Considering historical patterns, this is the most unconvincing dynamics of all market cycles.

Previously, after halvings, during the following 12 months, the first cryptocurrency consistently delighted investors with robust 'x's. However, the years 2024–2025 deviate from the usual scenario — the market seems to be stuck in standby mode.

Why is this time different — we analyze in ForkLog's material.

Historical Patterns vs. Current Cycle

According to researchers at Kaiko, in the 12 months following the 2012 halving, the price of Bitcoin soared by 7000%, while during the market phases of 2016 and 2020, the increase was 291% and 541% respectively.

It is clear that in the current cycle, the price is not reaching such results. After the block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, digital gold has only appreciated by 46% (calculations as of April 29).

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