In April, the U.S. economy added 177,000 non-farm payroll (NFP) jobs, surpassing forecasts of 130,000. Despite this strength, the figure fell short of March’s 185,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, aligning with expectations. This stronger-than-expected NFP data has pushed the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May to nearly 100%.
However, not all employment indicators paint the same picture. The ADP private employment report for April showed a mere 62,000 jobs added, far below the 115,000 forecast and marking the weakest print since July 2024. At the same time, Q1 GDP contracted by -0.3% on an annualized basis, the worst performance since Q2 2022. Inflation, measured by core PCE, rose 2.6% YoY—exactly as expected.
These mixed economic signals—strong NFP data on one side and weak ADP/GDP figures on the other—create uncertainty for market participants. For traders, especially in the crypto market where macro data often drives volatility, understanding the bigger picture is key.
Key Takeaways for Traders:
The strong NFP print suggests the labor market remains resilient, reducing the urgency for immediate Fed rate cuts.
Yet, weak GDP growth and soft ADP data highlight underlying economic fragility.
Rate cuts may still come later in the year, but not likely in the near term unless economic data worsens.
Strategy Outlook:
Short-term caution: Expect sideways or volatile price action in both traditional and crypto markets as traders digest the mixed data.
Watch for key Fed signals: Stay updated on future FOMC speeches and data releases—especially inflation and labor metrics.
Stay flexible: Mixed signals require dynamic risk management. Diversify, use proper stop losses, and be ready for both bullish and bearish setups.
