Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX derivatives exchange, recently made notable remarks, dousing investors' hopes that the US would soon build a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. According to Hayes, President Donald Trump's recent promises of a strategic digital asset fund may not come to fruition – at least in the short term – and could even lead to a wave of sell-offs in the market.
Politics and perception – a greater barrier than actual value
While acknowledging that Bitcoin is a valuable asset, Hayes emphasizes that the US government actively buying Bitcoin is politically unfeasible.
You cannot convince politicians to approve printing more money to buy Bitcoin when the country is facing a massive debt,” he said. Moreover, the public image of the crypto community – often associated with ostentation and lack of discipline – makes investing in this type of asset sensitive from a media perspective.
Currently, the US holds about 200,000 BTC seized from criminal cases, but Hayes does not believe that number will significantly increase through deliberate purchases. This goes against the expectations of many investors that the government will start accumulating Bitcoin as part of the national financial strategy.
"Trump trade" – Short-term risks, long-term optimism
Although President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order to establish a strategic digital asset reserve fund, Hayes believes that the time remaining before next year's midterm elections is too short for any policy to create a significant impact on the market.
"The market is in a state of expectation and losing patience," Hayes commented. He warned that if investors do not see specific progress from the "Trump narrative," a strong correction could occur, especially for digital assets propelled by this political wave.
However, in the long run, Hayes remains firmly optimistic about Bitcoin. He predicts that if economic policies under Trump are implemented, this could lead to a depreciation of the USD, especially if the US returns to using gold as a reference tool. In that context, Bitcoin is likely to become an attractive alternative asset, drawing capital from global investors seeking a safe haven.
China, the EU, and Bitcoin's international outlook
Not limited to the political context in the United States, Hayes also notes that Asia could become an important growth driver for the crypto market. According to him, if Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong expand access to mainland Chinese investors, the market could witness a huge influx of capital into Bitcoin, creating a new growth spur.
Additionally, Hayes mentioned the possibility that some European governments are quietly accumulating cryptocurrencies, amid rising inflation and eroding trust in traditional monetary systems. According to him, countries seeking ways to preserve the value of national assets – outside the current financial system – could lay the foundation for a long-term bull cycle of Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Despite the market's volatility and wavering confidence in previous cycles, Hayes maintains his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028. He asserts that the investment strategy in altcoins led by Bitcoin's price cycles remains effective, despite skepticism from some analysts.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.