Recently, Berkshire Hathaway announced that its cash reserves have reached a historic high of $347.7 billion. Buffett's move sends an intriguing signal: he may believe that the US stock market is nearing its peak and that market risks are accumulating. In this context, 'gathering funds and waiting patiently' seems particularly prudent and wise.
This is not only an observation of traditional financial markets but also a warning for the cryptocurrency market. It is well known that the correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market is becoming more apparent, especially in an environment of excessive liquidity and macro policy uncertainty. If the US stock market enters a correction, does it mean that Bitcoin and Ethereum will also struggle to stay independent?
Are we already in a bear market?
Bitcoin's current trend once approached $98,000, but the market did not bring the expected continuous frenzy. Although market sentiment has not reached freezing point, there are obvious signs of cooling. As for Ethereum, being the 'second', perhaps we should give up on it, but, sigh, the E guardians have their hardships, with positions at 4000, 3500, 3000, 2500, and heavily leveraged contracts at 2000. The wrongs of our past since building positions in Ethereum have doubled our repayment. All long positions in Ethereum futures and contracts have been closed, and we are left holding spot, waiting for the next rising tide, whether it takes a year, two years, or even five years. Waiting is the most agonizing yet necessary path to recovering our investments. We may be standing at the tail end of a bull market or have already stepped into the early stages of a bear market; the market just hasn't deeply felt this change yet.
Personal asset allocation advice: USDC, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, clear out altcoins and MEME coins.
In this ambiguous but dangerous environment, investment strategies should return more to rationality:
The strategy of holding BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP for the long term remains unchanged. They are still the most recognized and stable assets in the crypto space, serving as 'hard currency' in this digital asset revolution.
Decisively clear out altcoin holdings. The once high-return fantasies have now become unrealistic. In a bull market, altcoins may bring multiple returns, but in a bear market, they often become the hardest hit, suffering significant losses. Gradually converting them into mainstream coins (USDC, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) is a necessary step to enhance asset safety.
Increase cash reserves to stay prepared. Just like Buffett, real market opportunities often arise after deep adjustments, and only those with ammunition can truly 'pick up bargains'.
Be patient and maintain simplicity, waiting for the cycle to turn.
Investment has never been a smooth ride; it's a game against cycles. We must learn to stay calm at the peaks and hold our faith in the valleys. The current market may no longer be noisy, but it is precisely at such moments that true judgment and strategy are tested.
Perhaps a bear market is on its way, or it has already quietly arrived. And smart investors have long been prepared to face every impact it brings.
Maintain independent thinking and learn from excellent peers, keeping cash on hand to wait for opportunities to rebound at market bottoms. Abandon the desire for overnight riches and high leverage; as long as you are alive, even $100 can be used to exchange time for space.
