As of May 3, 2025, Bitcoin ($BTC) has experienced significant price fluctuations, influenced by multiple macro and market factors. Standard Chartered Bank points out that Bitcoin, as a tariff risk hedging tool, may rise back to the $84,000 level in the short term, but is currently impacted by Trump's trade policies, causing the price to briefly drop below $74,500, hitting a five-month low. In terms of market structure, the miner cost range ($60,000–$65,000) constitutes a key support level, while around $87,000 forms a strong resistance level, having been breached multiple times unsuccessfully.

Regarding institutional movements, spot ETFs continue to attract inflows (e.g., BlackRock's IBIT fund has a scale of $53.77 billion), combined with long-term holdings from companies like MicroStrategy (with unrealized gains of about $3.9 billion), which supports market confidence. However, some U.S. states have delayed Bitcoin investment legislation and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have cooled, exacerbating short-term selling pressure. On-chain data shows a cluster of 50,000 BTC holding costs around $74,000, which may slow the downward trend, but if it falls below $69,000, it could trigger larger liquidations. In the long term, analysts predict a breakthrough of $200,000 by mid-2025, mainly due to institutional accumulation (such as El Salvador's national reserves) and strengthened sovereign narratives.