Solana's (SOL) test run down to $95 on April 8, after a sharp decline of 64% in the previous quarter, is a classic example of a bold 'buy the dip' strategy. In other words, it is an early sign that buyers are ready to engage in value areas.
As we move towards the middle of Q2, SOL is recovering and returning to the price levels seen at the beginning of March, indicating that the market is currently in a state of net profit. However, the pullback is not yet complete. Instead, the price is still fluctuating below the supply wall of $150 just above.
Typically, this kind of sideways action, especially when profitable, is a sign of resilience. Market participants seem to lean towards capturing future upside potential rather than taking short-term profits.
In this context, Solana's recovery may be building a foundation for a breakout to $200, becoming the new baseline.
Recovery before resistance threshold
Solana's 15% increase this week may face some difficulties in the coming days. Why? First, SOL is approaching the supply wall of $150, a key liquidity resistance area.
Generally, when assets are nearing their ceiling, restructuring the portfolio and taking profits is unavoidable. At the same time, the data also confirms this. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains above 1, meaning market participants are taking profits.
At the same time, NRPL (Net Realized Profit and Loss) turned green after SOL broke out above the resistance at $130 on April 12, indicating that the market average is currently in a profitable state.
Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, Pump.fun has re-entered the game, transferring an additional 105,233 SOL (equivalent to about $591 million at an average price of $185) to the Kraken exchange.
Of this, 264,373 SOL was sold instantly around the price of $158, generating about $41.64 million USDC. However, despite high realized profits and the large amount of tokens sold by a large entity, Solana's price structure remains stable.
This indicates that there is potential buying (bid) support below and the distribution is being effectively absorbed — a positive signal for market structure.
Market sentiment is reinforcing the long-term outlook for Solana
Despite the short-term correction, Solana's long-term potential makes the current valuation an attractive dip-buying opportunity, and market investors are confirming this.
On May 2, three new wallets created withdrew 145,000 SOL from the Kraken exchange, worth approximately $21.8 million, with an average purchase price of about $150.
This indicates that new capital is flowing into the network, which may be a sign of accumulation due to fear of missing out (FOMO). Notably, long-term investors are also active during this phase.
The net position change index of Solana holders has shifted to positive after a strong distribution phase during the 65% correction that pushed the price down to $95.
Source: Glassnode
The net position change index of holders has turned positive, combined with accumulation activity near the price of $150, reflecting the increasing confidence of long-term holders. This is a sign that the market does not see the current price level as a ceiling, but as a launchpad.
This action acts like a psychological cushion, reinforcing the scenario that a breakout to $200 is the basic possibility.
Simply put, the recent adjustment does not look like a reversal but rather an entry point strategy for investors pursuing long-term profits.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.