The countdown has begun. Indeed, bitcoin could reach new all-time highs much sooner than anyone imagines. A recent analysis by Timothy Peterson, a recognized economist in the Bitcoin network, predicts a surge to $135,000 within the next 100 days.
The basis for this forecast: the decline of the VIX index, a symbol of newly found risk appetite and a favorable macroeconomic environment. Enough to rekindle the bullish ambitions of a market seeking powerful catalysts.
The VIX index and the macroeconomic thesis of BTC at $135,000.
In a recent post on X, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson put forth a bold but methodically constructed hypothesis. If the current macroeconomic environment remains unchanged, bitcoin could reach $135,000 within 100 days.
This scenario is based on the development of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a well-known indicator measuring the expected volatility of the U.S. stock market. Peterson stated in a social media post on X (formerly Twitter) on May 1, 2025:
VIX below 18 is often understood as a risk acceptance signal.
In this context, investors are encouraged to shift towards high-yield assets such as cryptocurrencies.
The following are key events supporting this forecast:
The VIX fell from 55 to 25 over 50 trading days, signaling a gradual recovery of confidence in the financial market;
Peterson's forecasting model boasts a historical tracking rate of 95%, enhancing the reliability of his prediction of $135,000;
According to Peterson, "if the VIX remains low, it will create the necessary conditions for bitcoin to reach a new all-time high within the next 100 days."
This model aligns with macroeconomic interpretations, where bitcoin, as a risk asset, reacts directly to global perceptions of risk.
Such an approach is supported by Jurrien Timmer, head of macroeconomic research at Fidelity. He explained in a post on X on May 2 that bitcoin is both "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde," sometimes serving as a store of value, sometimes as a speculative asset.
He points out that when global money supply (M2) increases alongside a rising stock market, bitcoin tends to rise because it benefits from double leverage: monetary and speculative.
The market is under pressure: Is a major short-selling event imminent?
Alongside these macroeconomic signals, other indicators are also emerging from the core of the cryptocurrency market itself. CryptoQuant emphasizes that the market capitalization of stablecoins has reached an all-time high of $220 billion.
Such an increase is not random: it reflects the return of liquidity available in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, which could spur new bullish moves for bitcoin. While capital outflows are characteristic of previous phases, this trend reversal indicates a capital re-injection often seen as a precursor to a bullish market.
However, that's not all. The funding rate for Bitcoin futures has become very negative, signaling an increase in short positions in the derivatives market. This means that many traders are now betting against bitcoin's rise.
Now, under these conditions, any strong rise in BTC could trigger short-selling, forcing sellers to urgently buy back their positions to limit losses. Over $3 billion in short positions are currently facing liquidation. If this move occurs, it could push the price of bitcoin up to $100,000, in a move amplified by the mechanical effects of leverage.
Beyond simple technical observations, this imbalance between buyers and sellers shows how sensitive the market remains to sudden catalysts. An external factor, whether macroeconomic or regulatory, could be sufficient to reverse positions and trigger a strong bullish effect. In this context, the short-term outlook is marked by high uncertainty, but also the potential for explosive growth. The question remains whether the market can maintain pressure long enough to turn this potential into reality.
