$BTC The prediction of a US economic recession in 2025 varies depending on the source. Here's a breakdown of what different sources are saying¹ ² ³:

- *Polymarket*: Predicts a 59% chance of a US recession in 2025, with a cumulative trading volume of over $4.27 million for this prediction. Other reports suggest a 57% or 58% chance, highlighting the uncertainty.

- J.P. Morgan: Estimates a 60% probability of a recession occurring in 2025, citing aggressive tariff policies as a significant threat to economic growth.

- *Federal Reserve Bank of New York*: The US Recession Probability Index stands at 27.01% for February 2026, higher than the long-term average of 15.12%.

- *Kalshi*: Predicts a 59% chance of recession, aligning with Polymarket's forecast.

- *Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University*: Puts the odds of a US recession at 60% for the coming year and even higher for the next four years, driven by factors like tariffs and uncertainty.