Can $BTC BTC break through 100,000? Please stay tuned for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 8, hawkish or dovish?

The Federal Reserve's interest rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.50%, core PCE inflation at 2.8%, slightly above the 2% target. Employment is stable, and the economy shows no signs of recession. The probability of no rate cut in June has risen from 35% to 64%, with the first rate cut possibly in July.

Currently around $95,000-$97,000, close to the resistance level of $100,000, with a year-to-date high of $109,000.

The cryptocurrency market has strong expectations for a rate cut, and bullish sentiment is high, with some users predicting a short-term breakout above $100,000, but others warning of a pullback risk. Institutional funds (ETF, MicroStrategy) continue to flow in, supporting the price.

Short-term (May-July): The probability of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 is 60%-70%, requiring rate cut expectations to be fulfilled or sustained institutional inflows. Given the current overbought state, a pullback to $93,000-$95,000 is quite likely, and a breakout above $100,000 needs confirmation with increased volume.

Medium-term (July-December): If the rate cut occurs in July, BTC is expected to break through $120,000, with an end-of-year target of $150,000-$200,000, in line with historical cycle patterns (post-halving bull market).

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 97.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.8%.

The pressure is back on Trump; how will he respond? 🤣