Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has transitioned from a bear to a bull market, and according to the bull market channel, has risen for a year and a half as of May 3, 2025 (technically, it is still in a bull market channel); in contrast, Ethereum is in a bear market channel $ETH
If we think of Ethereum as a platform for selling goods with payment functionality, it becomes easy to understand, because ETH relies on businesses going on-chain to collect GAS fees and the USDT channel to collect conversion fees to USDT; the two major sectors include SOL, TRX, SUI, APT... competing for market share. Among them, the conversion fee for TRX to USDT is not low, but many e-commerce and exchange platforms support this TRX channel. APT has the cheapest conversion fee to USDT, but many e-commerce platforms do not support it. By early 2025, platforms like SUI and SOL had already entered a bear market channel; it is clear that BTC can rise because it is still in a bull market channel due to its safe-haven attributes. The second reason is American-style market control, and after the market matures, it tends to behave this way towards structural market trends. Because the market is overly optimistic (with many speculative assets), the funds in the market cannot keep up with the issuance speed of speculative assets. When we think about the general explosion of altcoins, the funds from institutional investors, retail investors, and whales will gravitate towards leading BTC. According to the control of the US stock market, bull and bear cycles will become ineffective, so BTC will face a major dip next, followed by a slow recovery and gradual rise, repeating this cycle! Until the market cap reaches a certain level, the fluctuations will decrease and gradually stabilize (referencing Moutai, we know that smaller fluctuations tend to be maintained, yielding dividends).
BTC and gold share similarities. Gold had high trading volume in April, and it is expected to have another high-volume spike in May. The high trading volume at elevated gold prices indicates significant economic issues. Why the Russia-Ukraine war? Why the trade war...? The essence is an economic crisis that requires finding ways to acquire each other's resources. Thus, the concept of 'gold in chaotic times' arises in international trade, rather than relying on the hard paper money you print that feels rough for wiping.
If you don't believe it, you can look at how the last U.S. subprime mortgage crisis occurred! Some people printed a lot to maintain surface prosperity and structural market trends; the market needs a strong bloodbath reshuffle! Remember, in every major crisis, the ones who win 100% are those who hold massive amounts of cash and buy bleeding assets.