Is the current market indicating a major bull market is coming, or is this just a rebound from a deep bear market?

My subjective opinion and my money vote lean towards the former, as I still have over 6 layers of long positions in it.

I believe there will be a major bull market this year, and the market has indeed been recovering for some time now; Bitcoin has also stabilized above MA120.

There is another viewpoint that says: if we consider Bitcoin's cycle of a major bull market every four years, the rise from the bottom of 16,000 to 96,000 is already 7-8 times, leaving not much room for upward movement.

However, many altcoins, although a significant number have already fallen to zero, are originally worthless castles in the air, and may still remain at high levels.

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates significantly, it is likely due to an economic recession, which would lead to a collapse in the US stock market rather than a surge, and consequently, the crypto market would likely also crash.

This viewpoint is not incorrect; there is indeed a possibility of this happening.

However, current data indicates that Bitcoin has actually entered deflation, and MicroStrategy is still leveraging to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin has almost been mined out in advance! Even if it drops, it cannot fall too much unless MicroStrategy starts to sell significantly...

So Bitcoin has only one trend: after a correction, it will rise again. Bitcoin is rising, and as long as there is one crazy spike, it is very likely that altcoins will also see hotspots, leading to a significant rise in certain sectors.

Therefore, having around half a layer of positions, holding Bitcoin and following the trending sectors might be a more rational strategy. #数字资产法案