Is the BTC whale setting up a liquidation harvesting machine at $98,000?
1. Brief Analysis of the Market
Today’s market makes one want to play "Uneasy" for the whale — it was already bad enough that last night's non-farm payrolls were disappointing, but today the price has been stuck between $96,800 and $97,800, playing a game of "quantum disco," with volatility tighter than the way a pancake vendor sprinkles green onions! The MACD is even more remarkable, as the DIF and DEA are separated by a 36.3-point galaxy, with red bars stubbornly holding at 72.6, reminiscent of a programmer's last tuft of hair after a 996 work week — you think it will go bald, but it insists on standing tall!
2. On-chain data plays 'Infernal Affairs'
Half an hour ago, a giant whale stuffed 9,200 BTC into Coinbase, a move comparable to a barbecue stall owner shouting "liquidation" while restocking, but the options market suddenly saw a threefold increase in open interest for the $190,000 call contracts, clearly indicating the whale is playing "openly repairing the road while secretly crossing the river." More astonishing is that long-term holders have unrealized profits reaching 350%, a number historically signaling the start of a sell-off, with the cost line at $99,900 hanging over us like the sword of Damocles, and the $100,000 threshold could instantly turn into a "mass grave."
3. The May Curse holds hidden dangers
Historical data shows that May is often the "month of harvesting leeks," with an average Q2 return of 26% looking good, but the median is only 7.5%, and liquidity is disappearing faster than wallet balances. What’s worse is that expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have been delayed, institutional funds are fleeing quicker than a food delivery guy running away, and the BTC fear and greed index has returned to neutral, with funding rates at a three-month low — this atmosphere is reminiscent of ants moving before a storm.
But don’t let the whale's smoke bombs scare you! BlackRock's IBIT holdings have surpassed 600,000 BTC, El Salvador has hoarded 32 BTC in 30 days, and the European Blockchain Group has even made bold claims of holding 260,000 BTC by 2033. This market is like bungee jumping from a high altitude, with both the bull and bear waiting for the nighttime US stock market to open for a tailwind.
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