[I. Yesterday's Review: The last struggle of the bulls, termination signal begins to appear]
On May 2, TRUMP continued to oscillate below 13.43, repeatedly attempting to break through without success, with weak upward momentum and increased selling pressure, clearly indicating a release of pressure after inducing buying. The short-cycle indicators show a dead cross + shrinking trading volume, signaling that the market's willingness to buy is rapidly depleting, and the bears are lying in wait for a counterattack.
[II. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis]
[Daily Level] — Long upper shadow + top divergence, top structure is about to be confirmed
K-line pattern: Yesterday closed with a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow, marking two consecutive days of bearish closing at a high position;
EMA system: EMA7 continues to suppress the price, and EMA30 has not been effectively broken;
MACD: The red bars are shortening, and the fast and slow lines are about to cross bearishly, with bullish momentum exhausted;
BOLL: The Bollinger middle band is suppressing, and it has not been able to stabilize above the middle band;
Conclusion: The top structure is completed, and the daily line may at any time form a single-day medium bearish structure.
[Four-hour line] — Triple top pattern locked in, bearish signal emerging
K-line structure: A clear 'triple top' structure is formed, with tops at 13.43 / 13.36 / 13.31 respectively;
EMA system: EMA14 crosses below EMA30, forming a bearish arrangement;
RSI: Sustained dullness at a high level, having fallen below the 50 axis, indicating increased downward momentum;
BOLL Channel: The Bollinger middle band is flat, and the price has repeatedly attempted to rise without success, indicating a risk of breaking down;
Conclusion: If it breaks below 12.88 today, the main trend of bears will be fully established.
[One Hour Line] — Clear bearish structure, short-term rebound lacks strength
K-line structure: Currently, there are 4 consecutive small bearish candles, with the price gradually declining;
EMA: EMA7/14/30 three lines arranged downward in a dead cross;
BOLL: The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, and the current K-line is floating between the middle and lower bands;
KDJ: After a high-level dead cross, it continues to decline, dominated by a weak market;
Conclusion: The hourly line has entered an accelerated correction phase and may first break through the psychological support at the integer level of 13.
[III. Key Point Layout and Short Selling Plan]
Opening position: 13.00
First Zhi Ying: 12.80
Second Zhi Ying: 12.60
Zhi Loss Position: 13.20
