It has just been a year since the last #halvingbinance of $BTC , that is, the reward for mining each block is halved with the aim of reducing the issuance of new bitcoins. Therefore, every time 210,000 blocks are mined, the creation of new bitcoins is reduced by half, and this event tends to occur roughly every 4 years. Let’s remember that the number of bitcoins created is limited, specifically 21 million, and that is why the halving controls the pace of coin creation.
So far, there have been 4 halvings:
November 28, 2012
July 9, 2016
May 11, 2020
April 2024
One year after the first halving, Bitcoin rose from $12 to almost $1,000. After the second halving, it rose to $2,550. After the third halving, it went from $8,700 to $19,700 in December 2020, and then it would continue rising to $66,000.
In March 2024, I mentioned that after the fourth halving in April 2024, it could rise to $90,000-$100,000. Well, that day it was at $63,817 and has risen to $106,000, reaching the target of $90,000-$100,000.
Even so, it is true that Bitcoin is rising less with this fourth halving than with the three previous ones. Note that with the first one, it rose 7,000% in the 12 months that followed, 291% one year after the second halving, and 541% in the year following the third.
The issue of Trump's tariffs has affected all 'risk' assets, and Bitcoin, although it rises well, is quite far from previous figures.
The economic policy uncertainty index is a good barometer. It averaged 317 during the six months following the last halving, 107 in the six months following the 2012 halving, 109 in the six months following the 2016 halving, and 186 in the six months following the 2020 halving. This shows that the scenario is different and more complex.
