According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson has raised the possibility of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a new peak within the next 100 days, maintaining an optimistic outlook for 2025. In his analysis shared on X, Peterson links BTC's price movement with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market volatility expectations over a 30-day period. He noted that the VIX index has decreased from 55 to 25 over the last 50 trading days. A VIX score below 18 indicates a 'risk-on' environment, which is favorable for assets like Bitcoin. Peterson's model, which has a tracking accuracy of 95%, predicts a target of $135,000 for Bitcoin if the VIX remains low. This prediction aligns with Bitcoin's sensitivity to market sentiment, as low VIX reduces uncertainty and encourages investment in riskier assets.
Fidelity's global macro director, Jurrien Timmer, provided insights into Bitcoin's volatility, likening its nature to 'Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.' Timmer highlighted Bitcoin's dual role as a store of value (Dr. Jekyll) and a speculative asset (Mr. Hyde), distinguishing it from gold, which remains a consistently 'hard money' asset. He emphasized the interaction between Bitcoin and the global money supply, noting that when M2 grows and the stock market is rallying, Bitcoin tends to perform well due to those dual attributes. However, when M2 grows and equities experience a correction, Bitcoin's performance becomes less predictable. This underscores Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, making it less stable compared to gold.
In related developments, data from CryptoQuant reveals that the market capitalization of stablecoins has reached a record $220 billion, indicating a surge in liquidity in the crypto market. This marks Bitcoin's exit from a bearish phase as capital flows back, suggesting that a new BTC peak could be on the horizon in the coming weeks. While the upward trend of Bitcoin continues, shorter time frame charts show a shift in market dynamics. The funding rate for BTC futures has turned negative again, signaling an increase in short positions as traders bet against the rally. The 4-hour chart funding rate has reached its most negative level in 2025, indicating that short-side liquidity significantly exceeds long-side liquidity, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze.
This imbalance could drive BTC towards the $100,000 level. Cointelegraph notes that over $3 billion is at risk of short-side liquidation, which could strengthen upward momentum and surprise bearish traders. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
