What will be the trend of the cryptocurrency market after the Toronto Blockchain Summit from May 14 to 16?

1. Short-term bullish stimulus

The summit may release positive news regarding ecological cooperation and technological upgrades (such as collaboration plans with Google Cloud and Visa or developer incentive plans), combined with the recent increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may boost market sentiment. Historical data shows that similar summits have previously triggered short-term price increases (such as RSI oversold rebounds and Bollinger Band contractions).

2. Key variables and risks

- Token unlocking pressure: Be cautious of the selling pressure caused by token unlocks from project teams before and after the summit, which may partially offset the positive effects.

- Regulatory dynamics: After the summit raises industry awareness, the government may strengthen regulatory scrutiny, increasing market uncertainty.

- Macroeconomics: A shift in Federal Reserve policy (such as interest rate cuts) may become a core driving force in the medium to long term, but if economic data deteriorates beyond expectations, it could trigger market volatility.

3. Technical signals

Bitcoin's current price is oscillating in the $95,000-$97,000 range, and if it breaks the $98,000 resistance level, it may open up upward space; conversely, if it falls below the $90,000 support level, it may enter a correction period. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline, and liquidity tightening may exacerbate short-term volatility.

Conclusion: The summit itself may serve as a short-term catalyst, but cryptocurrency prices are influenced by multiple intertwined factors. Investors need to pay attention to the specific progress of cooperation released by the summit, on-chain capital flows, and macro policy trends, while rationally assessing the risk-reward ratio.