$$BTC

$BTC Bitcoin After $97K: 3 Possible Paths

Introduction

Bitcoin began May with a strong upward movement, closing at $97,406 and successfully breaking above a key resistance level it had struggled with since February. This breakout is significant; it signals renewed buying strength, especially now that the price sits comfortably above the realized price of short-term holders (STH) at $93,342. That level now acts as a reliable support floor, representing the on-chain average cost of BTC held for up to 155 days.

With a new all-time high potentially within reach, investors are looking ahead. But, as history often reminds us, Bitcoin rarely moves in straight lines. The coming weeks could unfold in one of three ways, depending on how momentum holds.

Three Scenarios That Could Define Bitcoin's Short-Term Future

Crypto analyst Axel Adler outlines three likely paths for Bitcoin, each based on the market momentum ratio, a metric that currently sits around 0.8. This level places BTC in what Adler calls the 'beginning' rally zone, meaning the market has room to run but has not yet committed to a decisive breakout.

Scenario one is the most bullish. If the momentum ratio rises above 1.0 and holds there, on-chain metrics like MVRV and NUPL would likely change at high speed. That kind of movement could fuel a powerful rally, with prices potentially ascending towards the $150K–$175K range, levels consistent with past bull market explosions.

The second scenario is more neutral. If the ratio holds between 0.8 and 1.0, Bitcoin could consolidate in a wide band between $90K and $110K. In this case, current holders could remain, but new buyers would not flood the market with enough volume to push prices dramatically upward.