BTC: May Movements — My Personal Perspective
Hello, friends. I'm sharing my thoughts on the current situation in the market.
1️⃣ A sharp rise in May could lead to a strong divergence on the monthly chart. Ideally, a smooth movement towards the 107000–107999 zone, followed by a pullback, and then a breakout in August. This scenario offers much better chances for a real impulse. The option of a sudden liquidity injection is possible, but I'm not betting on it for now.
2️⃣ The 2-month and 4-month timeframes look weak. Without a strong upward movement, everything is heading towards a crypto winter in the fall.
3️⃣ The best scenario would be a correction to 89800–92800 before May 7. This would provide energy for growth after Powell's speech. If we continue to rise without a pause — there is a high risk of a drop immediately after this date.
4️⃣ There is still a lot of "free" USDT in the market — this potential is not realized. I am waiting for a new high.
5️⃣ On Friday, there was a spike to 97895, and now a pullback is happening. There is a chance for a last push into the 97950–98550 zone — possibly a trap for bulls. But overall, the correction scenario is gaining weight.
Key levels:
Support: 96500, 94000, 92800, 91300, 89800
Resistance: 97800, 98200, 98900, 100000, 103000