BTC: May Moves – My Personal Outlook
Hey everyone, sharing my take on what’s unfolding right now.
1️⃣ A sharp rally in May could lead to a strong bearish divergence on the monthly chart. A better path would be a slow, steady climb toward the 107000–107999 zone, followed by a pullback — and then a breakout closer to August. That setup has a much higher probability for a real move. Sure, a sudden liquidity wave could flip the indicators, but that’s not a bet I’m making just yet.
2️⃣ The 2M and 4M timeframes look weak. Without a strong push, things are lining up for a potential crypto winter by fall.
3️⃣ Ideally, I’d like to see a correction down to the 89800–92800 range before May 7. That would build strength for a breakout following Powell’s speech. If we just keep pumping into that date, a drop right after becomes almost inevitable.
4️⃣ USDT reserves are still huge — that dry powder hasn’t hit the market yet. I’m still expecting a new high to come.
5️⃣ Friday’s move to 97895 might’ve been the local top. We’re already pulling back, which aligns well with the correction scenario above. There’s still a chance for one last push into 97950–98550 — a bull trap? Maybe. Either way, we’re close.
Key levels I’m watching:
Support: 96500, 94000, 92800, 91300, 89800
Resistance: 97800, 98200, 98900, 100000, 103000
Let’s see how it plays out. Stay sharp.