In the cryptocurrency market, the candlestick chart is one of the core tools for technical analysis. By combining candlesticks of different time frames, one can identify trends, judge buy/sell signals, and manage risks. The following are typical uses and applicable scenarios for candlestick charts of different time periods:
1. Ultra-Short-Term Cycle (Minute Level)
- Common Cycles: 1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes
- Applicable Scenarios: High-Frequency Trading, Day Trading
- Usage:
1. Capture Short-Term Volatility: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; minute-level candlesticks can quickly reflect price changes, suitable for short-term operations.
2. Combined Indicators: Combine with indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands to find overbought/oversold signals or breakout opportunities.
3. Noise Filtering: Short cycle candlesticks are easily affected by market noise, require the use of trend lines or moving averages (e.g., MA20) to filter out false signals.
- Risk Warning: Must closely monitor the market; high trading frequency may erode profits due to fees and slippage costs.
2. Short-Term Cycle (Hourly Level)
- Common Cycles: 1 hour, 4 hours
- Applicable Scenarios: Swing Trading, Overnight Holding
- Usage:
1. Trend Confirmation: Use 4-hour candlesticks to determine short-term trend direction (e.g., upward channel or head and shoulders pattern).
2. Key Support/Resistance: Develop entry/exit strategies combining Fibonacci retracement and horizontal support/resistance levels.
3. Volume-Price Analysis: Observe changes in trading volume to confirm the validity of price breakouts (e.g., breakout with increased volume).
- Advantages: Balances market noise with trend signals, suitable for capturing trends over hours to days.
3. Medium-Term Cycle (Daily Level)
- Common Cycle: Daily (1D)
- Applicable Scenarios: Trend trading, medium to long-term holding
- Usage:
1. Main Trend Judgment: Daily level is the key cycle for determining market bull/bear status, e.g., using the 200-day moving average (MA200) for long-term support.
2. Pattern Recognition: Identify classic technical patterns (e.g., double bottom, triangle consolidation, cup and handle, etc.).
3. Multi-Indicator Validation: Combine weekly trends and MACD histogram divergence to improve the reliability of trading decisions.
- Suitable Audience: Suitable for investors with limited time, do not need to monitor frequently, focus on trend following.
Four, Long-Term Cycle (Weekly/Monthly Level)
- Common Cycles: Weekly (1W), Monthly (1M)
- Applicable Scenarios: Long-term investment (HODL), macro cycle analysis
- Usage:
1. Market Cycle Positioning: Use the weekly chart to determine the bull/bear cycle of cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin's halving cycle).
2. Historical Comparison: Compare historical highs/lows to analyze the current price's relative position (e.g., RSI overbought/oversold).
3. Institutional Fund Trends: Breakouts at the monthly level often reflect the layout of large funds (e.g., long-term trend reversals caused by institutional entry).
- Core Value: Filter out short-term volatility noise, focus on long-term value and market structure.
Five, Multi-Cycle Combined Strategy
1. Triple Time Frame Method:
- Advanced Cycle (e.g., weekly): Determine the main trend direction.
- Intermediate Cycle (e.g., daily): Look for trading opportunities.
- Lower Cycle (e.g., 4 hours): Precise entry points.
Example: Weekly shows an upward trend → Daily pulls back to support → Enter when a bullish engulfing pattern appears on the 4-hour chart.
2. Cycle Resonance:
When multiple cycles give the same signal (e.g., both daily and weekly break resistance), the trading win rate significantly increases.
Six, Specificity of the Cryptocurrency Market
1. 24/7 Trading: No market closure, pay attention to volume differences during Asian and European/American trading sessions.
2. High Volatility: Short cycle candlesticks may experience extreme volatility (e.g., spike events), stop-loss settings are necessary.
3. Event-Driven: Major news (e.g., regulatory policies, project upgrades) can instantly change trends, requiring news analysis.
Seven, Precautions
- Avoid Overfitting: The shorter the cycle, the more easily technical indicators can be disturbed by noise, requiring simplified strategies.
- Dynamic Adjustment: The effectiveness of the same cycle may vary in bull and bear markets (e.g., 4-hour charts are more reliable in bear markets).
- Risk Management: Regardless of cycle length, stop-loss and take-profit must be set to control single trade risks (recommended ≤2% of capital).
By flexibly using candlestick charts of different cycles, investors can more accurately grasp the rhythm of the cryptocurrency market. However, note: technical analysis is a probability game, and decisions must be made combining fundamentals (e.g., on-chain data, macroeconomics) and sentiment (e.g., fear and greed index).