Based on the latest market dynamics and institutional analysis as of early May 2025, there is a possibility of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000, but various factors such as technical analysis, capital flow, and policy environment need to be considered. Here are the key analysis points:
I. Current Market Situation
Price Breakthrough and Resistance: Bitcoin recently broke through $95,000 and reached a new high of $97,424 on May 1, 2025. Technical analysis shows that if it can stabilize within the key resistance range of $95,000-$98,000, it may further challenge the psychological barrier of $100,000. However, there is significant selling pressure in this area, which may trigger a short-term pullback.
On-chain data and capital flow
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, with over $3 billion net inflow in the last week of April 2025, the highest since December 2024.
Institutions like MicroStrategy plan to continue accumulating Bitcoin through issuing new shares, further strengthening market confidence.
II. Positive Factors Driving Breakthroughs
Policy and Regulatory Trends
Arizona, USA, passed a bill allowing public funds to invest in Bitcoin, becoming the first state to establish a 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve'.
If the national-level Bitcoin reserve policy promoted by the Trump administration is implemented, it may become a significant catalyst.
Macroeconomic Environment#
Expectations of Fed rate cuts (25 basis points in 2025) and inflation pressures (core PCE data) enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as an 'anti-inflation asset'.
Global liquidity is recovering, traditional asset returns are declining, and capital is shifting to the crypto market seeking safe haven.
Technical Support
Bitcoin has regained key moving averages such as the 100-day and 200-day, and indicators like the Short-Term Holder Realized Price show a stable market structure.
If it breaks through $100,000, the next target may point to $108,000 (historical high) or even $130,000.
III. Potential Risks and Challenges
Technical Pullback Pressure
Short-term momentum appears slightly weak; if the $95,000 support is not maintained, a pullback to the $88,000-$90,000 range may occur.
Market sentiment is overheated, with retail investors chasing highs, increasing the risk of long position liquidations (e.g., $275 million liquidated in a single day on April 29).
Policy and Market Uncertainty
With the U.S. elections approaching, regulatory policies may shift (e.g., SEC's scrutiny of the crypto industry).
If the Fed delays rate cuts or accelerates tapering, it may suppress liquidity.
External Market Linkages
The performance of U.S. stocks (especially the S&P 500) has a significant impact on Bitcoin; if U.S. stocks become more volatile, it may trigger spillover effects in the crypto market.
IV. Institutional Predictions and Market Consensus
Optimistic Prediction: Institutions like Standard Chartered Bank and Galaxy Digital believe that if favorable policies are realized, Bitcoin may challenge $200,000 in 2025.
Baseline Scenario: Most analyses suggest that after breaking through $100,000, focus on stabilization; if it pulls back without breaking $88,000, the bullish trend remains.
Pessimistic Scenario: If the macro environment deteriorates (e.g., economic recession), it may fall back to the $80,000-$100,000 range.
V. Investor Strategy Recommendations
Short-term Strategy: Focus on the breakthrough of the $95,000-$98,000 resistance; if it stabilizes with volume, consider increasing positions; if it pulls back below $90,000, it may be seen as an entry opportunity.
Long-term positioning: Diversify investments (e.g., gold, AI tokens) to hedge against volatility risk, prioritizing compliant platforms.
Event Tracking: Closely monitor Fed policies, progress on U.S. Bitcoin reserve bills, and changes in institutional holdings (e.g., MicroStrategy's buying dynamics).
